CBB Picks: Continue to Fade LSU By Betting Missouri On Spread

The LSU Tigers have been one of the most profitable teams to fade in college basketball this season.

The Tigers have the second-worst against the spread record of power-conference teams. Only the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a worse mark against the number.

LSU is 6-15 ATS and it has not covered in each of its last eight games. That streak should continue on Wednesday, as it visits the Missouri Tigers.

Missouri turned a corner recently with back-to-back double-digit wins and it can add to that run by covering the 10-point spread at home.

Below is a look at Mizzou and the rest of my Wednesday college hoops betting card.

Wednesday CBB Picks

Overall Record: 89-91-5 (4-2 Tuesday)

Penn State at Purdue (-10) (6:30 p.m. ET, BTN)

Purdue handled Penn State in their first meeting this season at The Palestra.

The Boilermakers' 13-point victory was a look into how controlling their defense can be, and that unit thrives at home inside Mackey Arena.

Purdue held its last four home foes to 65 points or fewer. Only Rutgers owns a road win West Lafayette in Big Ten play.

The Boilermakers have a significant edge over any foe with Zach Edey patrolling the paint, but that edge is larger in the matchup with Penn State. Purdue ranks 44th in offensive rebounds per game. Penn State ranks 361st in that category.

Purdue should get a large amount of second-chance opportunities and limit Penn State to a lot of one-shot possessions.

Pittsburgh (+8.5) at North Carolina (7 p.m. ET, ACC Network)

I was surprised that the Pittsburgh team that just beat Miami at home would be this much of an underdog in Chapel Hill.

The Panthers also have wins over North Carolina and Virginia and they played Duke and Clemson close.

North Carolina is getting better, but three of the wins during its four-game winning streak came against Syracuse, Boston College and Louisville.

I think UNC's recent form helped inflate the line. The Tar Heels can still win at home, but Pitt will give them a pretty good test over 40 minutes.

Radford (-5.5) at Presbyterian (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

I can't admit to being a Big South expert, but I can tell you when a line looks wrong.

Radford sits in second place in the Big South with an 8-2 league record, while Presbyterian owns a conference-worst 1-9 mark.

Radford beat Presbyterian by 18 points on its home floor on December 31. That result started a nine-game losing run for the Blue Hose in which they have lost six games by six or more points.

Radford is 7-1 since the first matchup with Presbyterian and it held five opponents under 60 points in that stretch.

Belmont at Murray State (Over 145.5) (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Belmont and Murray State combined for 145 points in their first meeting as Missouri Valley Conference rivals on January 17.

The former Ohio Valley Conference foes each average over 71 points per game, and the total should be aided by Belmont's average defense. The Bruins give up 70.4 points per game.

Belmont's offense is the more reliable unit to ride with for the over to hit. The Bruins hit the 70-point threshold in seven of their last eight games.

LSU at Missouri (-10) (9 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

My season-long fade of LSU continues.

The Tigers are now 1-7 in the SEC and they have not covered in their last eight games.

LSU faces a tough matchup on Wednesday against a Missouri team that averages 17 more points per game and shoots 6.5 percent better from the field.

Mizzou is coming off an impressive home win over Iowa State and it should carry that momentum into an easy win over LSU.

Southern Utah (+125) at Cal Baptist (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Southern Utah owns one of the biggest points per game disparities of the season in its matchup with Cal Baptist.

The Thunderbirds average 17.7 more points per game than the Lancers.

Cal Baptist possesses the 12th-best two-point defense on KenPom, but it has losses to Seattle and Utah Valley, the two other top teams in the WAC, and that is what scares me about the Lancers holding serve on home court.

New Mexico (+4.5) at Utah State (10:30 p.m. ET, FS1)

This feels like gift.

New Mexico has played some of the best basketball in the country all season and it should not be a 4.5-point underdog against anyone in the Mountain West.

The Lobos face a Utah State squad that lost by double figures to San Diego State, Nevada and Boise State. All of those defeated came on the road, but it is still concerning that the Aggies did not compete against some of the best sides in the conference. That makes me feel even stronger about the New Mexico pick.

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