I'll be honest here.
I'm still burned by the Terance Mann assist prop failure that I suffered on Friday night.
Despite the want to run away from assist props, there is one on the Monday NBA board that is too good to pass up.
Derrick White is the only one of Boston Celtics' three primary ball-handlers expected to be on the floor against the Orlando Magic.
Unlike Boston, the Milwaukee Bucks are expected to have a full complement of players available on Monday night. While it is easy to get caught up in the returns of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday is the player to trust against the Detroit Pistons.
The games on the west coast are a bit of a mess, but there is one matchup that can be exploited by a big man.
NBA 3-Point Play
Overall Record: 15-16
Derrick White Over 5.5 Assists (+125)
The Boston Celtics' assist column without Marcus Smart in the lineup are a bit weird to follow.
Four players had four or more assists, including six from Derrick White, on January 11. Three players had five or more helpers on January 9.
There's an added wrinkle to Monday's Celtics-Magic game that should help White's assist numbers. Malcolm Brogdon is also out for the trip to central Florida. Orlando allows the fourth-most assists per game to point guards.
White's assist total should easily hit six if he is on the floor for 30-plus minutes, which should be the case without two of the team's three primary ball-handlers.
Jayson Tatum should have a decent amount of helpers, but I think we are getting a nice price on White given the circumstances.
Jrue Holiday Over 18.5 Points (-125)
The returns of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton headline Milwaukee's matchup with Detroit, but I do not think we should overlook Jrue Holiday.
Holiday reached the 20-point mark in five of his last six games. He can still reach that total on Monday against a below average Pistons team.
Middleton is not going to just show up and score 20 points. He has more games under 15 points than over that threshold in his brief stint on the court this season.
This is basically a buy-low spot on Holiday, who should still have a large shot volume while his two star teammates get back into an offensive rhythm.
Walker Kessler Over 11.5 Points (-105)
Centers typically feast against the Charlotte Hornets.
The Hornets have one of the worst defenses below the rim in the NBA and Walker Kessler is the true center on the Utah Jazz roster.
Charlotte recently allowed 24 points to Alperen Sengun, 16 points against Al Horford and 35 points versus Pascal Siakam.
Kessler produced 13 or more points in four of his last five games. He played over 25 minutes in each of those contests.
The rookie out of Auburn also has three double-doubles in that span, but his double-double prop price is higher than his points prop for Monday night.
Look for the Jazz to feed the big man early and often. Kessler could be one of the top candidates for a points ladder on the seven-game slate.