Soccer Selections: Take Brighton, Brentford in Weekend EPL Action

There are two massive games headlining the English Premier League weekend schedule.

But I'll be honest the struggling pair of Liverpool and Chelsea and a Manchester United side without Casemiro facing Arsenal do not exactly strum up excitement from the betting perspective.

There will be weeks every once in a while in which the Soccer Selections come from the games buried in the weeds because that's where the better picks are.

The EPL, Serie A, La Liga and the Bundesliga (Welcome back finally!) have plenty of other spots that are better to wager on.

So away we go with the weekend plays.

English Premier League

Leicester City vs. Brighton (+105) (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)

Brighton can't stop scoring and Leicester City is waiting for the four years ago version of Jamie Vardy to pull it out of a scoring slump.

Brighton scored 17 goals in its last five matches across all competitions and it is flying high after a 3-0 win over Liverpool last week.

Leicester has been held scoreless in three of its last four games. The last goal scored was the game-winner in a 1-0 FA Cup win over Gillingham.

The Foxes' expected goals against has been 1.7 or higher in their last four EPL contests. Brighton should feast on that below average defense.

Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest (+175) (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)

While we're on the topic of teams that can't score.

Bournemouth has two goals from its last six games and both of them came in the FA Cup loss to Burnley.

The Cherries are flirting with disaster above the relegation zone, a spot we thought Nottingham Forest would be in before the World Cup break.

Forest is up to 13th and its xGA in its last three EPL games has been one or lower. Forest won the xG battle 1.9-0.8 over Bournemouth in their first meeting this season, which ended up as a 3-2 win in favor of the Cherries.

Forest is more consistent right now, while Bournemouth is struggling for ideas in the final third.

Leeds United vs. Brentford (+190) (Sunday, 9 a.m. ET)

Over 2.5 Goals (-115)

Leeds United-Brentford could just turn into a Rodrigo-versus-Ivan Toney goal fest.

Leeds, to the surprise of no one, is still conceding goals at an alarming rate. Five of Leeds' six opponents out of the World Cup break have scored multiple goals. Jesse Marsch's team has 11 tallies in that span, 10 of which have come in the last four games.

Brentford's defensive record has been devoid of clean sheets as well, as the Bees held two of their last 10 opponents scoreless.

We're going to see a lot of goals at Elland Road and I think Leeds' defense is worse right now, so Brentford comes out with the edge.

Serie A

Salernitana vs. Napoli (-1.5;- 120) (Saturday, Noon ET)

Serie A leader Napoli is fresh off its 5-1 thumping of Juventus last Friday.

Victor Osimhen and Co. are unstoppable in the final third and they can wreak havoc on 16th-place Salernitana, who just gave up eight goals to Atalanta.

Salernitana has the worst overall xGA in Serie A at 34.8. Napoli has the best xG at 35.8.

Napoli's attack will create a ton of chances and that should lead to a multi-goal win, which is priced nicely at -120.

La Liga

Villarreal (-140) vs. Girona (Sunday, 8 a.m. ET)

Villarreal has been solid at home all season in Liga.

The Yellow Submarine is 5-1-1 inside its home stadium with a xGD of +6.7, which is the fifth-best mark at home in La Liga.

Girona is tied for the fourth-worst point total on the road in La Liga. The 11th-placed side only has two road wins all season, one against a lower-division team in the Copa del Rey and the other over last-placed Elche.


Overs Parlays - Saturday 9:30 a.m. ET window

Over 1.5 Goals Parlay (+197)

Over 2.5 Goals Parlay (+1760)

I introduced the Bundesliga Overs parlays prior to the World Cup break.

The German top flight typically delivers on the goals, and there's some decent data to back it up.

All five of the Saturdays in October with three or more games in the same time window had at least two goals. Two of the four multi-game windows in November had multiple goals in every contest as well.

I don't feel comfortable betting specific teams yet because it's been over two months since the last Bundesliga game, but I'm willing to go back to the reliable bet that cashed more times than not in October and November.

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