Every once in a while you stare at a betting line and ask yourself if that's the right thing you're seeing.
That's where I stand with one specific prop on the Friday NBA slate.
Terance Mann has four or more assists in five of his last six games, so then why on earth is his assist prop listed at 2.5?
I have no realistic answer to that question, but I can tell you that I'm hammering that prop.
The Los Angeles Clippers are starting to define their rotation with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the floor. Mann is averaging 30.9 minutes per game with the top unit in January.
The Clippers should pour on the points against the San Antonio Spurs, so even if Mann does not lead the game in assists, he should create enough scoring opportunities with his passing to hit the prop.
The rest of Friday's NBA slate is weird. Brooklyn and Golden State are on the second leg of back-to-back series, there are a few tough defensive battles and injury news is clouding props for some teams.
Friday's NBA 3-Point Play is a bit more unorthodox than usual because of the players involved in it, like Mann. There are no superstars on the card, but there are three players with prop value.
Friday NBA 3-Point Play
Overall Record: 14-14
Terance Mann Over 2.5 Assists (-140)
I don't care if I'm being lured into a trap here.
Terance Mann hit the over on this assist number in five of the last six games. He is the truest version of a point guard in the current Clippers starting lineup.
Mann is averaging 2.8 assists per game in his 30.9 minutes per contest in January. He is receiving much more time than Reggie Jackson in that spot in the lineup.
San Antonio gives up the most points per game and the fourth-most assists per game in the NBA, so it seems like the Clippers will create a ton of scoring opportunities.
How hard can it be for Mann to record three assists, or if you put it this way, one assist every 10 minutes.
Collin Sexton Over 12.5 Points (-115)
The Utah Jazz host the Brooklyn Nets in what is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Nets.
Kyrie Irving played 39 minutes in Phoenix last night and four other Nets were on the floor for more than 30 minutes.
Utah could turn the game into a blowout as Brooklyn faces fatigue. That could lead to more playing time for Collin Sexton.
Utah's Sixth Man of the Year candidate has been in double figures in 10 of the 11 games he played in December and January.
The former Cleveland guard has at least nine field-goal attempts in each of his last five games. He could thrive against a tired and weakened Brooklyn second unit.
Markelle Fultz Over 5.5 Assists (-150)
Markelle Fultz has been as consistent as they come in the assists department.
The Orlando Magic starting point guard is averaging 5.6 assists per game this season. He is averaging 6.3 handouts per contest in January.
Fultz has six or more assists in five of the last seven games. He faces a New Orleans team that allows the second-most assists per game to point guards.
The Pelicans gave up 11 assists to Darius Garland and seven each to Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro this week.
Fultz has plenty of big options to target with his passes. Look for him to pick out Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. to exploit the Zion Williamson-sized hole in the New Orleans frontcourt.