CFB Week 12 Picks: Take Oklahoma State, Houston as Underdogs ATS

The Bedlam rivalry game between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma does not have the buzz it typically carries this season.

The wrong team could be favored in the Big 12 clash. Oklahoma has been one of the biggest disappointments in the country and it could lose outright to the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State showed some life in the second half last week and that could carry over to Saturday night's game in Norman, Oklahoma.

The Cowboys are one of a few underdogs worth trusting on Saturday's Week 12 slate. Houston and Iowa are among the teams to keep an eye on the wrong side of the spread.

TCU (-2) at Baylor (Saturday, Noon ET, Fox)

TCU impressed me last week with the way it beat Texas with its defense.

The Horned Frogs have a much more talented offense than Baylor and their defense made a statement in Austin last week.

Baylor will throw everything into the Big 12 clash, but the Bears struggled mightily against Kansas State, the second-best team in the Big 12, last week and I can't get that out of my head.

Florida (-14) at Vanderbilt (Noon ET, SEC Network)

Vanderbilt let down game?

Vanderbilt let down game.

The Commodores beat Kentucky on the road last week in adverse conditions.

Meanwhile, Florida rolled through South Carolina. The Gators have back-to-back double-digit victories and they are building toward next season under Billy Napier.

The Gators average over 80 more total yards compared to Vanderbilt and I think their overall talent shows over 60 minutes in Nashville.

Kansas State at West Virginia (+8) (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

West Virginia needs some sort of statement win for Neal Brown to keep his job. The Mountaineers fired their athletic director this week and need something positive to come out of Saturday.

The Mountaineers have been better at home under Brown with wins over Oklahoma and Baylor. They also kept it close with TCU at home. TCU scored a last-second touchdown to earn a 10-point win.

Kansas State has three wins on the road, but only one of them was by more than a touchdown.

This is a game that will fly under the radar at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and it serves as a perfect trap spot for Kansas State.

Houston (+6) at East Carolina (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Houston is 4-1 in its last five games.

The Cougars have scored at least 33 points in each of those contests and they average 5.5 more points per game than East Carolina.

ECU has two losses and a pair of wins by two and three points in four of its last five games. The Pirates can't be trusted with a decent-sized spread in their favor at home with Houston playing offense the way it has.

Oregon State (-7) at Arizona State (2:15 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Oregon State is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games.

The Beavers handled their business against California and Colorado, who are at the bottom of the Pac-12 with Arizona State.

ASU is not playing for bowl eligibility and it is waiting for the season to end. The Sun Devils have back-to-back losses by 10 points or more and their defense gives up over nine more points per game compared to the visiting Beavers.

UL Monroe at Troy (-14.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Troy has one of the best defenses in the country.

The Trojans allow 16.7 points per game and they held each of their last five opponents under 20 points.

UL Monroe is 1-5 on the road and it conceded over 40 points in all of those defeats. The WarHawks allowed 28 points in their road win over Georgia State.

Penn State (-19) at Rutgers (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)

Penn State loves blowing out the weaker teams in the Big Ten.

The Nittany Lions beat Maryland by 30, Indiana by 31 and Minnesota by 28 in their last three games against teams outside the Top 25.

Rutgers has four losses of 17 points or more in Big Ten play and they may not be able to move the ball against a Penn State defense that shut out Maryland last week.

Iowa (+3) at Minnesota (4 p.m. ET, Fox)

Iowa is on a three-game winning streak and it needs a win over Minnesota to remain in decent shape to win the Big Ten West.

Minnesota has been dealing with offensive injuries throughout the season and it struggled with the better teams in the conference. The Gophers lost to Penn State, Illinois and Purdue. They have wins over Nebraska, Rutgers and Northwestern in the last three weeks.

The Hawkeyes are the better team with the better defense and they should continue to take care of business as an underdog on the spread.

Western Kentucky (+4.5) at Auburn (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

Western Kentucky is a live underdog inside Jordan-Hare Stadium.

The Hilltoppers are one of the best Group of Five teams and they average 15.5 more points per game than Auburn.

Auburn is an average team at best and it has made a ton of mistakes, even with Cadillac Williams installed as the interim head coach.

Auburn's most important game of the season is next week and that could affect its mentality against Western Kentucky as well.

Oklahoma State (+7) at Oklahoma (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Oklahoma is not good enough to be a seven-point favorite.

Oklahoma State found some life last week after Spencer Sanders returned from injury in the fourth quarter to beat Iowa State.

The Cowboys can hang with the Sooners with Sanders in the pocket and they may win outright against an Oklahoma team that has struggled throughout Brent Venables' first season in charge.

USC at UCLA (Under 76.5) (8 p.m. ET, Fox)

UCLA will try to control the game with its run game behind Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zack Charbonnet.

The Bruins' path to victory includes a lower-scoring game in which they dictate the pace and USC's margin for error on offense is small.

USC lost top running back Travis Dye to an injury last week and it could be slowed at times by the Bruins.

USC-UCLA could still be a high-scoring game and have the under hit. Everything must go right from the start for the over to cash.

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