CFB Week 11 Picks: Take TCU To Cover In High-Scoring Game Against Texas

The TCU Horned Frogs face their biggest test of the season to date on Saturday night in Austin, Texas.

The odds makers do not think highly for the Horned Frogs because they are a 7.5-point underdog. Texas is a very good team, but I'm not sure the Longhorns are over a touchdown better.

I still think Texas will win the contest, but there are going to be a lot of points and TCU can hang with Max Duggan leading the charge against the Quinn Ewers-led Longhorns.

The rest of the Week 11 college football board features more interesting lines, and ones that can be taken advantage of at money line prices, including Iowa, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M.

CFB Week 11 Picks

Vanderbilt at Kentucky (Noon ET, SEC Network)

Under 47.5

This is an ugly pick to start off Saturday, but the numbers on both sides suggest the under is in play.

Kentucky ranks seventh in time of possession in the FBS and it is 7-1 to the under in its last eight games.

Vanderbilt has not been great (again) this season, but the Commodores have only allowed five rushes of 30 or more yards.

Vanderbilt can contain the Wildcats rushing attack enough to make them work for every yard. The problem lies in the passing game, where Vandy has allowed 19 plays of 30+ yards.

Kentucky has 15 passing plays of 30+ yards this season, which is tied for 35th in the FBS.

However, we may not see a passing ambush from Kentucky if it gets ahead by a touchdown or two. The rushing attack could grind out a win while Vandy's offense does next to nothing against the Wildcats defense.

Rutgers at Michigan State (-9.5) (Noon ET, BTN)

I'm cautious of the let down spot here for Michigan State, but Rutgers has been that bad in Big Ten play that I don't think the spot matters.

Rutgers scored over 20 points once in Big Ten play and that was in a win over Indiana, who is not very good this year, as you can tell by its loss to the Scarlet Knights.

Michigan State displayed a bit more life over the last few weeks with wins over Wisconsin and Illinois and it needs a win at home to keep the chase alive to become bowl eligible.

I think that will motivate the Spartans to avoid a let down and dispense of the Scarlet Knights very easily in East Lansing.

Purdue at Illinois (-6.5) (Noon ET, ESPN2)

Speaking of Illinois.

The Fighting Illini reside in a bounce-back spot against a Purdue team that has been beaten up by the best teams in the Big Ten West lately.

Purdue laid an egg at home last week against Iowa and it was gashed for 35 points by Wisconsin in its last two games.

Illinois held its last four Big Ten West opponents to 14 points or fewer and it covered the spread in three of those four contests.

The Illini should get back to business on the defensive side of the ball to lock up a key Big Ten West win before it faces Michigan next week.

Temple at Houston (3 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Over 57

I'm going back to the well with Houston Overs.

The Cougars have hit the over in four straight games and they are 9-1 to the over in their last 10 games versus FBS opposition.

Houston eclipsed the 30-point mark in each of the last four games and it faces a Temple offense that has been competent over the last few weeks.

Temple produced 74 points against South Florida and Navy. The Owls have some offensive rhythm right now and they could take advantage of a Houston defense that allowed 431.2 total yards per game.

Houston will win the game, but Temple could score some points and potentially cover the three-score spread.

Maryland at Penn State (-10) (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox)

Penn State is really good at beating the average and bad teams in the Big Ten.

The Nittany Lions dispensed of Minnesota and Indiana with ease and they should do the same against Maryland.

Penn State's aggressive defensive backs set up a nightmarish matchup for Maryland's top receivers and that can take away the Terps' best offensive weapons.

UCF at Tulane (-115) (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Tulane has been one of my favorite teams to bet on over the last month.

The Green Wave covered in each of its last five games and is a slight favorite against UCF in a massive AAC contest on Saturday.

Tulane's defense is the key here. The Green Wave allow 55 fewer yards per game than UCF and its 40th-ranked rushing defense can hold UCF's ground game at bay.

UCF has a better rushing defense, but its passing defense is far worse and that is where Michael Pratt and the Green Wave offense can find the edge.

Iowa State at Oklahoma State (+105) (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

This is officially my last stand with Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State.

The Cowboys have been dreadful in their recent losses, but I think a return home against an average football team will do them well.

Iowa State gained some confidence by beating West Virginia, but that result speaks more to how bad the Mountaineers have been on the road than what the Cyclones are building.

Wisconsin at Iowa (-105) (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1)

This is one of the most important games of the weekend. The winner of Wisconsin-Iowa will still be alive in the Big Ten West title race.

Iowa played some impressive football in wins over Northwestern and Purdue. The signs of progress from the Hawkeyes offense lead me to the money line play against Wisconsin.

The Badgers have two losses on the road and one road win over Northwestern, which is not that impressive. They have not been great away from Madison and I don't trust their offense against Iowa's superior defense.

Appalachian State (-115) at Marshall (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Marshall just has not been good enough to be listed as a Pick 'Em against Appalachian State.

The Thundering Herd scored more than 13 points once in the last four games and that performance is tainted a bit since James Madison was without its starting quarterback.

App State averages over 12 points and 60 total yards more per game than Marshall and its offense could be too much for the Herd to handle.

Georgia (-16.5) at Mississippi State (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Mississippi State typically does not keep it close against the best teams in the SEC.

The Bulldogs displayed no signs of life against Alabama earlier this season and they lost on the road against Kentucky and LSU.

Mike Leach's team almost blew a double-digit lead and lost to Auburn at home last week. The Bulldogs are just too inconsistent to trust against a Georgia team that is clearly the top side in college football.

Washington at Oregon (-13) (7 p.m. ET, Fox)

Oregon comes into Saturday with five straight double-digit victories in Pac-12 play.

The Ducks reached the 40-point mark in all of those contests and they should do the same against a Washington team that has been shaky on the road.

Washington lost at UCLA and Arizona State and barely beat Cal in its last road game. The Huskies' offense slowed down in the last two weeks after a strong start and that is not a good sign in a matchup with an Oregon offense that is flying high and looking to prove a point to the College Football Playoff selection committee.

TCU (+7.5) at Texas (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Over 64.5

I was more than ready to take Texas in this spot until I saw the line.

TCU is still a good team and the line movement up to over a touchdown has me siding with the Horned Frogs to keep the game close and cover.

Saturday's game in Austin has the potential to be an old school Big 12 shootout. The over is 5-2 in TCU's last seven games and Texas hit the over twice in the last two weeks.

This has all the makings of a quarterback showdown between Max Duggan and Quinn Ewers and it could turn into a Game of the Year candidate.

Texas A&M (-105) at Auburn (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

Texas A&M's season is on life support.

The Aggies need to beat Auburn to keep their pursuit of bowl eligibility alive.

Auburn put up a nice fight in the second half last week against Mississippi State, but it is still a flawed team and the Aggies will be playing with more desperation on Saturday night.

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