Liverpool opens its UEFA Champions League group play on Wednesday with a brutal trend going against it.
Jurgen Klopp's side conceded the first goal in four of its six English Premier League contests. All of those opening concessions have come in the first half.
Liverpool can't avoid another slow start against Napoli, who has had one of the best attacks in Serie A early in the new campaign.
Napoli is one of a few money-line underdogs that could be primed for upsets on Wednesday. One of the other upset candidates also resides in Italy in the form of Inter Milan.
Inter has a difficult task opening with Bayern Munich, but the Italian side may have an edge against a Robert Lewandowski-less Bayern at the San Siro.
Speaking of Lewandowski, he is expected to make his UCL debut with Barcelona in what could be the most lopsided game of the eight played on Wednesday.
Soccer Selections
Overall Record: 26-25 (5-2 Tuesday)
Napoli (+270) vs. Liverpool (3 p.m. ET)
Napoli To Score First Goal (+130)
Napoli First Half Money Line (+295)
Wednesday is the perfect time to implement the first half fade of Liverpool.
Liverpool conceded first against Fulham, Crystal Palace, Manchester United and Newcastle United. Three of those goals came in the first 32 minutes of the half. Newcastle netted its opener in the 38th minute. Liverpool did not have a response to any of those goals until the second half.
The Reds go into Naples off a disappointing scoreless draw with Everton at Goodison Park. They have yet win a game on the road in the EPL.
Liverpool's expected goals against (xGA) in the three road games against Fulham, Manchester United and Everton was over one and a combined 4.2.
Napoli's expected goals (xG) total is tied for the best in Serie A with Inter at 10.5. The Italian side scored multiple goals in three of five league games.
Napoli also boasts the best xGA in Serie A at 3.2 and it has conceded on four occasions.
All of the numbers suggest an upset could be on the cards and then you add in the emotional factor of Napoli wanting three points at home to open up the UCL group stage and you have the perfect concoction for an upset.
Inter Milan vs. Bayern Munich (3 p.m. ET)
Inter Milan Double Chance Win Or Tie (+100)
Inter Milan might be at a disadvantage on paper without Romelu Lukaku, but it still has enough quality to pull off a result at home against Bayern Munich.
Bayern has not been perfect at the start of the Bundesliga campaign. It dropped points in 1-1 draws with Borussia Monchengladbach and Union Berlin in its last two league games.
Bayern was stopped by a fantastic goalkeeper performance from Yann Sommer against Gladbach and was not sharp enough in the final third to put away Union Berlin.
Inter's back line has not been great to start the Serie A campaign, but even if it concedes, it will have Lautaro Martinez and Edin Dzeko to create scoring chances up top.
Inter's attacking cupboard is not bare, which is something we witnessed against AC Milan on Saturday, and like Napoli, it could carry the extra motivation of taking a result of one of Europe's top clubs on home soil.