MLS Bets: Take Columbus, New England At Home Against Bad Road Teams

We love to talk about trends when it comes to betting.

The good news about the Wednesday Major League Soccer slate is that trends are abundant from the first kickoff to the last.

The most stark trend in MLS in 2022 has been the home and road splits of the New York Red Bulls. They have 27 road points, the most in the Eastern Conference, but are second-to-last in the conference in home points with 17.

While the Red Bulls have been excellent on their travels, a few teams from the East that are in action on Wednesday have not been. Three of the four teams with fewer than 10 road points in the East could have their bad road runs extended.

Over in the Western Conference, Austin FC has the best scoring total at home, and their games have been a gold mine for scoring props of any kind.

If those trends were not enough to digest, all three teams in MLS with three-game winning streaks at the moment are in action.

So what I'm saying to you is there are a plethora of ways to approach the betting card and it is all about finding the best angle among all the trends.

MLS Wednesday Bets

Overall Record: 43-43

Inter Miami at Columbus Crew (-140) (7:30 p.m. ET)

I know what you may be saying here.

Columbus has not been overly impressive lately and it comes into Wednesday one spot behind Inter Miami in the Eastern Conference standings.

However, the Crew have a distinct advantage with Inter Miami coming to Field. Miami is the only team in the East that has failed to score a double-digit goal total on the road.

Miami's only road wins came in April against a Seattle team in the middle of Concacaf Champions League play and over an average San Jose team in a game in which the Herons had an expected goals against (xGA) total of 1.5.

Miami posted a xGA total above one in each of its last four road games. Columbus has been over one on expected goals (xG) in six of its last seven home games.

Columbus' problems at home have been on the back line, as it conceded twice in three straight home games, but that form could correct itself if Miami continues to score away from south Florida.

Take all the stats away for a second and look at the standings. Columbus needs this game from a playoff perspective and that could be the extra motivation it needs to grab three points.

Chicago Fire at New England Revolution (-130) (7:30 p.m. ET)

New England Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-145)

While we are on the topic of Eastern Conference teams that need wins, let's talk about the New England Revolution.

New England sits outside the playoff line going into Wednesday, but a win at home against the Chicago Fire could move it as high as sixth depending on what happens in Columbus.

The Revolution have the fourth-best defensive record at home in the East. The problem for Bruce Arena's squad is it has 17 goals scored and 14 tallies conceded at Gillette Stadium.

The chances have been there for the Revs to have a breakout game at home. They had xG totals of 2.5 and 1.5 in their last two home games. The team's xG has been over one in each of the last five contests.

Chicago conceded on multiple occasions in each of the last four games and it has the fourth-most goals allowed in road games. The Fire have allowed two or more tallies in five of their last six games and five different opponents put up at least three goals on them in road matchups.

New England's chances need to be converted better and the Fire's defense should allow that.

New York Red Bulls at CF Montreal (7:30 p.m. ET)

Over 2.5 Goals (-110)

Bet the Red Bulls at +300 at your own risk.

I thought about taking that risk myself, but CF Montreal has been too good lately to warrant another Red Bulls road victory, but there is value on the over.

Montreal quietly bagged multiple goals in each of its last five games and the Red Bulls have one clean sheet in their last nine games.

The price on the over is low because Montreal has three shutouts in its last four home games, but those performances came against teams with flaws, like Toronto before its full Italian influence took over and a struggling NYCFC squad without Taty Castellanos.

Montreal could even put three on the board by itself. Its xG was over 1.5 in four of the last five home games. The Red Bulls have a xGA over one in nine of their last 10 road games.

Maybe instead of just saying bet the Red Bulls on the road we should look at the other trends within that stretch that make the over a more palatable bet.

Portland Timbers at Austin FC (-140) (9 p.m. ET)

Over 3.5 Goals (+120)

The one thing you can say for certainty is that Austin and Portland matches have been enthralling to watch.

Austin just hung a four spot on Los Angeles FC on Friday night to extend a streak of three or more goals in home games to five.

Portland's overall concession record on the road is not great. The Timbers let in multiple goals on the road on nine occasions.

The Timbers have not held a clean sheet in their last eight matches, while Austin conceded nine times in the last four games.

Austin has the better set of attackers, led by Sebastian Driussi, and I would not be surprised to see Austin run rampant on Portland after the Timbers went through an emotional win over the floundering Seattle Sounders.

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