I don't usually let my fandom take over my betting mind, but I'm making an exception for Tuesday night's MLB slate.
Charlie Morton's strikeout prop is as low as it has been in months, and even though he is on the road, he should have a good amount of success against the Boston Red Sox.
The play has everything to do with the Atlanta Braves bouncing back from a rough weekend in New York. Morton is a veteran hurler who can set the National League East side back on track instead of falling into a deeper losing streak.
Ideally, I'd love to see Morton twirl a gem on the mound while the Braves bats rock Rich Hill for a few dingers, some over the Green Monster, and that is where the emotional side takes over for the start of my Tuesday card.
The rest of the plays are well thought out with a ton of analysis behind them, but the Braves need a bounce-back win in the worst way and Boston is the perfect team to get it against.
Charlie Morton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Charlie Morton has had at least five strikeouts in each of his last 12 starts.
The Atlanta right-hander remained at five punch outs in just three of those appearances, which means he has had six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 12 games.
I'd be all over the strikeout prop in a normal situation, but I like it even better on Tuesday because the Braves are turning to the veteran hurler to get things back on track following a brutal weekend in New York.
Three of Boston's four top batters in strikeouts will likely be in the lineup and the Red Sox's best hitters have struck out a good amount against righties. JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts have 156 strikeouts against righties between them.
Morton should overpower some of Boston's struggles and take advantage of a weak back end of the order to fan six batters by the time he leaves the mound in the sixth or seventh inning.
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Matt Olson's total bases prop is a bit higher than Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson because he will be in a lefty-versus-lefty battle with Rich Hill.
Olson's splits against left-handed pitching are not great, but this is where experience comes into play in two different areas. He has plenty of experience playing at Fenway Park and taking advantage of the short right field and he has seen Rich Hill more than anyone on the Braves' active roster.
Hill will be making his first home start since June 21 on Tuesday. The location of the appearance does not matter much when looking at the southpaw that gave up 26 hits in 27 innings in June.
Hill gave up nine hits and seven earned runs in his last three starts and he walked four batters two starts ago against the Chicago Cubs.
Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-165)
Over 18.5 Outs (-125)
Shane Bieber has quietly put together one of the best runs in the majors over the last month.
Bieber produced a complete game win against the Chicago White Sox on June 12. He went at least six innings in his next three starts and gave up one or two earned runs in three of his last four starts.
The Cleveland ace gets to face the most dreadful offense in baseball on Tuesday in the form of the Detroit Tigers.
Detroit has the worst OPS and third-worst batting average in the majors over the last week and Bieber should know the little details about each Tigers hitter from facing them three times this season.
Bieber had starts of seven, eight and 5.2 innings against Detroit this year and he had 21 strikeouts in those contests.
Even if he struggles to roll up a ton of strikeouts, Bieber should cruise through the Detroit order and last at least one out into the seventh inning.
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
The last time Minnesota Twins pitcher Joe Ryan pitched on the west coast he gave up 10 earned runs on eight hits and five home runs.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have to hope the same version of Ryan that showed up in San Diego on July 29 appears on Tuesday night inside Dodger Stadium.
Ryan was fine in his last start, but it was also at home against the Tigers, so I'm not putting too much stock in a bounce-back performance on the road.
Mookie Betts and Trea Turner are my favorite plays for the matchup against Ryan because they should get at least four at-bats with the way the Dodgers are swinging the bats.
Betts and Turner have both hit safely in the last four games and they should keep up the momentum from their weekend sweep over the Padres against Ryan.