Breaking Down Odds for USMNT Influenced English Premier League Teams

The United States men's national team presence is strong at three English Premier League clubs.

Leeds United, or the Leeds United States of America as we're calling them this year, have the most attention stateside.

Manager Jesse Marsch kept Leeds up last season and then he added Brenden Aaronson and Tyler Adams to the squad that hopes to not be in the relegation fight come 2023.

Christian Pulisic is still at Chelsea, where there is a lot of transfer speculation about who may be in and out before the transfer window closes at the end of the month.

Fulham is back! Tim Ream and Antonee Robinson reside in the Cottagers' back line as they try to remain in the Premier League and avoid another drop into the Championship.

Leeds, Chelsea and Fulham have our attention for this piece because of the betting perspective. Chris Richards is at Crystal Palace and Matt Turner is the No. 2 goalkeeper at Arsenal, but we are not sure how important both players will be throughout the Premier League season.

Leeds and Fulham are expected to finish in the bottom half of the table, and they could also be relegation favorites in the eyes of some pundits. Chelsea will once again be challenging for a top-four position.

In addition to team futures, DraftKings Sportsbook has individual goal scoring props on Aaronson, Adams and Pulisic.

Leeds United

To Finish Bottom 10 (-700)

To Be Relegated (+225)

To Finish Top 10 (+350)

To Finish Top Six (+1800)

To Win Premier League (+50000)

Player Props: Brenden Aaronson (Over 5.5 Goals; +175, Under 5.5 Goals; -280) Tyler Adams (Over 0.5 Goals; -150, Under 0.5 Goals; +120)

DraftKings' odds for Leeds United across numerous finishing position props gives you a good idea of what the realistic expectations are for the club.

Leeds finished ninth in their return to the Premier League two seasons ago, but they struggled last season and barely hung on in 17th place. Jesse Marsch was brought in for the final 12 matches to keep Leeds up. That was the sole focus of Marsch's managerial job when he took over in late February.

Staying in the Premier League is the bare minimum requirement for Marsch and his two American players at Leeds, a club that is going through an important personnel transition. Raphinha and Kalvin Phillips were sold to Barcelona and Manchester City, respectively, over the summer.

Aaronson and Adams were two of seven new signings made by Leeds ahead of the 2022-23 season. Aaronson has caught some attention for his play during preseason in the attacking end. Adams will be asked to do more defensive tasks and he will not be in the final third much.

Leeds' performances last season under Marsch are hard to translate into the new season because the club were playing for their top-flight life. Leeds won four matches, earned two draws and suffered six defeats under Marsch. The team had an expected goals total over one in eight of those contests, but its defense had a xGA over one in 10 of 12 matches and conceded on 19 occasions and held two clean sheets.

Leeds will only go as far as their defense improves. We know they have quality up top with Patrick Bamford and Jack Harrison. Aaronson will be a nice addition to the attacking group as well.

Even though Aaronson will be in a feature role in attack, that is not a guarantee that he gets six goals in his maiden Premier League campaign. He scored five goals once during his time with the Philadelphia Union and RB Salzburg. Aaronson does have familiarity with Marsch's system, the two were together at Salzburg, but the demands of the Premier League have to be added in to playing that season-long goal prop.

Bamford and Harrison will be trying to make impressions to make England's World Cup squad, and the same can be said about Rodrigo with Spain. The extra motivated scorers could be the main chance earners in the final third with Aaronson serving as the main distributor.

Aaronson is used to being the supplier to dynamic forwards from his time at Salzburg. Last season, Karim Adeyimi and Noah Okafor were up top and current Leicester City player Patson Daka bagged 27 goals two seasons ago. The MLS academy product will have no problem with setting up Leeds' top scorers, instead of being the man himself up top, which keeps me away from his season-long goal total.

Adams scored one Bundesliga goal while at RB Leipzig and he bagged an important UEFA Champions League goal for the German club, but that was it. It may be tempting to take Adams to score in a random fashion, but he will be tasked with more defensive responsibilities than anything.

As for Leeds' finish, they have the quality to stay up, but challenging for a spot in the top 10 will be difficult. There is a reason why the club is -700 to land inside the bottom 10. Leeds would need other teams to struggle and a fantastic pre-World Cup start to even contest for a spot in the top part of the table.


Christian Pulisic Over 5.5 Goals (-110), Under 5.5 Goals (-110)

Christian Pulisic comes into the Premier League season with 19 league goals for Chelsea.

Pulisic netted six tallies for the Blues a year ago and he banged in nine goals in his debut season.

The USMNT star needs a good start to the season so he can enter Qatar in the best form possible, but he could spend the early parts of the season fighting for a starting XI spot under manager Thomas Tuchel.

Chelsea signed Raheem Sterling from Manchester City and they still have Kai Havertz, Mason Mount and Timo Werner (for now). Werner has been linked with a move away from the club in recent days.

Even if Werner departs, Pulisic has strong competition just to get on the field every week. He should get enough starts to make an impact since the Blues have to balance playing in the UEFA Champions League group stage as well this fall.

The abundance of games should help Pulisic find some time in the XI early on in the season, and if he finds a vein of form, he could stay there and that would be great news for his season-long player prop.

The Over 5.5 goals is right on the edge of what Pulisic achieved under Tuchel last season, but he has a better chance of hitting that number than Aaronson does with his.


To Finish Bottom 10 (-1400)

To Be Relegated (+110)

To Finish Top 6 (+3500)

To Finish Top 10 (+700)

To Win Premier League (+100000)

Fulham have gone right back down to the Championship in each of their last two Premier League campaigns.

The Cottagers set the English second division on fire with 106 goals last season, but they are going to need more than offense to survive this time around in the Premier League.

That is where Tim Ream and Antonee Robinson come into the picture. Ream and Robinson should be two of the most important cogs in the Fulham defense. Staying up is the primary goal for Fulham and anything else will deemed as a surprise.

The club's recent history suggests the +110 price to be relegated is one to bet. Fulham and fellow promoted side Bournemouth are viewed as the two weakest teams in the Premier League by DraftKings.

Fulham likely needs to beat out three of Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Everton and Leeds to stay up. Brentford might find themselves in the relegation mix as well.

Last season, Watford and Norwich went right back down to the Championship, while Brentford finished 13th. Two years ago, Leeds landed in ninth while Fulham and West Brom dropped back immediately.

Sheffield United also finished in ninth place in the 2019-20 season. Aston Villa barely survived that year and Norwich went down among the promoted sides.

Sheffield United conceded 39 goals and had an even goal differential, while Leeds scored 62 times with a +8 GD to land inside the top 10.

Fulham could follow the Leeds model to the top 10 if Aleksandar Mitrovic catches fire in front of goal, but there are concerns about his play in the top flight after he scored three times the last time Fulham was in the Premier League.

The Cottagers are a long shot to cash in on the +700 ticket to land in the top 10. They need the perfect mix of strong defense and an in-form Mitrovic to replicate what Leeds and Sheffield United did in the last three seasons.

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