MLS Best Bets: Trust FC Dallas & New York Red Bulls Against Bad Road Teams

A full slate of Major League Soccer games is back in our lives this weekend.

A lot happened off the field since the last full match week. The 2026 FIFA World Cup sites were announced, the United States men's national team won a few games and New York City FC lost its head coach.

While a lot of things have changed in the soccer world lately, the truths about betting on MLS remain the same.

The home and road splits of certain teams are drastic and that is one of the primary statistics that will be used to gain an advantage throughout the rest of the season.

Those splits should play to our favor in a handful of contests on Saturday and Sunday, as a handful of the league's worst road teams, like Vancouver and Toronto, hit the road to play some of the better teams in the league.

Vancouver is the largest underdog on the board for its trip to FC Dallas, who is the best target for player props because of how well Jesus Ferreira and Paul Arriola are playing.

MLS Weekend Bets

Overall Record: 21-16

Vancouver Whitecaps at FC Dallas (-1.5; +140)

FC Dallas Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-170)

Jesus Ferreira To Have 2 Or More Shots on Target (+100)

FC Dallas ranks second in the Western Conference in home expected goal differential at 6.7.

Vancouver comes into Toyota Stadium with a road xGD of -7.1, which is the second-worst total in the West behind San Jose.

FC Dallas is a -200 home favorite, so it is hard to justify that pick, but the spread bet carries a ton of value at +140.

Four of Dallas' five home victories in league play this season were by multiple goals. The club found the back of the net on multiple occasions in each of those home wins.

The price on the FCD team total is a bit steep, but I'm willing to take it because of how consistent the team has been inside its home stadium.

Jesus Ferreira and Paul Arriola combined for 16 of FC Dallas' 24 league goals. Both players are worth a look to score at plus-money player props.

It should help both players that they had solid international breaks with the USMNT. Ferreira sits at +110 and Arriola is at +180 to score a goal.

The other way to approach the FC Dallas attackers is the shots on target prop. I'm willing to ride with Ferreira at +100 for two shots on target against a Vancouver defense that conceded the five-most shots on target this season in MLS.

Toronto FC at New York Red Bulls

Lewis Morgan To Score (+130)

Lewis Morgan To Have 2 Or More Shots on Target (+100)

Toronto FC has the worst xGD on the road in MLS.

The Reds sit at -12.4 xGD and with 15 goals allowed away from Ontario in league play.

Toronto gets a bit of a break against the New York Red Bulls since Patryk Klimala is suspended for Saturday's match at Red Bull Arena.

Klimala's absence opens up opportunities for other Red Bulls attackers to take advantage of a Toronto defense that has given up the most shots on goal to opponents with 88. That is five shots more than San Jose in second.

Lewis Morgan is the player to target for props in Klimala's absence. Morgan leads the Red Bulls in goals and shots on target.

The +110 price for two shots on target and +130 spot to score a goal are perfect for someone that should see an increased role in the attack against a below average defense.

Goalscorer Round Robin

Jesus Ferreira (FC Dallas) +110

Lewis Morgan (NY Red Bulls) +130

Hany Mukhtar (Nashville) +140

Mikael Uhre (Philadelphia) +160

Ferreira and Morgan were mentioned above.

FC Dallas and the Red Bulls should dispense of their Canadian opponents with relative ease an those players will be at the forefront of their respective attacks.

Hany Mukhtar caught fire right before the international break. He scored five goals across his last five matches across all competitions.

Nashville SC should handle a struggling Sporting Kansas City side at home and Mukhtar will be in the center of the home side's attack.

Mikael Uhre scored in a brief substitute role in Philadelphia's last game, and he should be healthy enough to start up top on Saturday against FC Cincinnati.

FC Cincinnati is playing better than it has in previous years, but the Union's front three should create plenty of chances and Uhre is trying to get going after a few injury layoffs.

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