MLS Bets: Take New York City FC, Charlotte FC, San Jose at home

There is usually money to be made when the worst Major League Soccer teams hit the road.

The Chicago Fire, Sporting Kansas City and Vancouver Whitecaps sit either worst or second-to-worst in their respective MLS conferences. All of them play road games on Sunday night.

All three teams have an expected goal differential above -4 on the road and they have not had much success away from their home stadiums.

Those numbers are more than enough to fade each club mentioned above against some quality opposition.

Minnesota United sits in the middle of the Western Conference, but it has the second-worst xGD on the road in the Western Conference and the third-worst league wide total.

If you have not picked up on the trend by now, I'm fading bad road teams against sides with decent money line prices.

I'm also going back to the goalscorer round robin strategy to take advantage of some of these matchups.

Sunday MLS Bets

Overall Record: 18-14

Chicago Fire at New York City FC (-1.5) (5 p.m. ET)

Welcome back to the Fade the Fire fan club.

Chicago has not won since March 19 and it earned a single point from its last five games.

The Fire picked up a point in a chaotic 3-3 game with the New York Red Bulls on Wednesday, but that should have been a win since they conceded late.

New York City FC should pose a tougher challenge to the Fire back line on Sunday inside Citi Field.

NYCFC's attack should feast on a Chicago defense that allowed an expected goals rate over two in three of the last four games.

The Fire probably wish they had the defense NYCFC owns. NYCFC has a four-game shutout streak going and it has five clean sheets in its last six games.

NYCFC has the far superior defense, and its offense could be the latest unit to feast on a Chicago defense that has been disappointing to say the least this season.

Vancouver Whitecaps at Charlotte FC (-160) (5 p.m. ET)

Vancouver comes into Charlotte in a peculiar situation.

The Whitecaps will not have their two top goalkeepers available due to health and safety protocols.

Winning on the road was going to be tough for the 'Caps even with Cody Cropper or Isaac Boehmer in net.

Vancouver has five losses in five road games with a goal differential of -11.

Charlotte is 4-0-2 at home in its expansion season and it allowed just four goals in those six contests.

Charlotte should benefit from Vancouver's situation as long as it puts chances on net early to test whomever the Whitecaps place in goal.

Minnesota United at FC Dallas (-120) (7 p.m. ET)

FC Dallas and Minnesota United have one of the biggest gaps in home and road splits of Sunday opponents.

FC Dallas is 5-1-0 with a +10 goal differential inside Toyota Stadium.

Minnesota United is 1-1-3 on the road with a -4 goal differential.

FC Dallas also owns a +4.9 expected goal differential in all games this season, while Minnesota has a -4.7 xGD over 12 matches.

Everything about this matchup screams FC Dallas, and we could see Jesus Ferreira find the back of the net again for FC Dallas as he gears up for the international break with the United States men's national team.

Sporting Kansas City at San Jose Earthquakes (-130) (7:30 p.m. ET)

The San Jose Earthquakes have been a different team since Matias Almeyda was fired.

The Quakes are 3-1-1 in their last five games and they defeated Seattle, Portland and Colorado on home soil.

San Jose's home form is worth noting in Sunday's clash with Sporting Kansas City, who is 0-1-6 with 19 goals allowed on the road this season.

Sporting KC had a single good performance on the road. That was a 0-0 draw in bad conditions against NYCFC.

SKC just got trounced by the Portland Timbers for seven goals last week and it may concede more against an in-form Jeremy Ebobisse leading the Quakes attack.

Goal Scorer Round Robin

Talles Magno (NYCFC): +180

Karol Swiderski (Charlotte): +170

Jeremy Ebobisse (SJ): +140

Jesus Ferreira (FC Dallas): +115

All of these player props align with the games I like on the Sunday slate.

Talles Magno will have more chances to score for NYCFC with Valentin Castellanos out due to a yellow card suspension.

Karol Swiderski, Jeremy Ebobisse and Jesus Ferreira are the top goal scoring threats on Charlotte FC, San Jose and FC Dallas, respectively.

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