MLS Picks: Take New York Red Bulls two ways at home against Chicago Fire

The New York Red Bulls are a Major League Soccer rarity right now.

The Red Bulls sit fifth in the Eastern Conference with 19 points, but they do not have a home victory in league play yet.

That should fix itself on Wednesday night, when the Red Bulls welcome the last-placed Chicago Fire to Red Bull Arena.

New York's expected goal differential is in the positive at home despite the lack of a win and it has familiarity with Chicago's defensive setup from an earlier meeting this season.

Gerhard Struber's Red Bulls sit at -215 on the money line, so we have to get a bit creative to bet on the Red Bulls in favorable spot.

The good news for us is the spread and total goals bets come in at better prices and those are the spots to attack to start off a loaded Wednesday night slate across North America.

Wednesday MLS Picks

Overall Record: 15-13 (2-0 Saturday)

Chicago Fire at New York Red Bulls (-1.5; +135) (7:30 p.m. ET)

Over 2.5 Goals (-110)

The New York Red Bulls own a +1.9 expected goal differential at home.

They have an 8.1 expected goals total, but only three tallies to show for it.

The difference between actual goals scored and xG should shrink against one of the league's worst teams.

Chicago is 4-0 to the Over 2.5 in its last four games, including a 2-1 loss to the Red Bulls in which the Fire finished with nine men.

New York had a 2.1 xG total and 14 shots against the Fire defense in that contest. We should see similar totals from a team playing with an incredibly high level of confidence at the moment.

The Red Bulls have a single loss in their last eight league games. They have seven performances with an expected goals total over one during that stretch.

The high expected goals total should translate into real goals for the Red Bulls, and I expect them to punish a lackluster Chicago defense that conceded on 11 occasions over the last four games.

CF Montreal at Nashville SC (-110) (8:30 p.m. ET)

Nashville SC has one win and a draw in league play inside the newly-opened GEODIS Park.

Nashville played to a draw with the Philadelphia Union to open the stadium. Nashville won the expected goals battle 1.8-1.2.

The Western Conference side picked up its first home win over Real Salt Lake in a game in which it held the Claret and Cobalt to 0.2 expected goals.

Nashville should back up its home-field advantage on Wednesday night against CF Montreal, who comes into Tennessee as the top team in the Eastern Conference.

CF Montreal has some questionable defensive numbers away from Quebec. Montreal has the most goals conceded on the road in the East with 14. Six of its seven opponents in road games produced an expected goals total over one.

Nashville typically dictates play inside its home stadium, and that should be the case in this matchup.

Look for Gary Smith's side to create the majority of the chances and take advantage of a Montreal defense that has been susceptible to concessions away from home.

FC Dallas at Vancouver Whitecaps (10 p.m. ET)

Over 2.5 Goals (-110)

FC Dallas has one of the most entertaining attacks in the league, led by Golden Boot leader Jesus Ferreira.

The second-placed side in the Western Conference is better suited to put in a strong performance in Vancouver than it regularly would.

FC Dallas did not have to make the long flight from Texas to British Columbia because it played away at the LA Galaxy on Saturday.

The body clocks of the FC Dallas players are set on Pacific time. That does not seem like a big deal, but it is for a league with a ton of cross-continent travel.

FC Dallas' overall road numbers are not great because it did not score in its first three road games. That form changed with two goals at Sporting Kansas City and three against the Galaxy on Saturday.

Vancouver conceded multiple goals in four of its last five games. Opposing teams had an expected goal total of 1.2 or higher in each of those contests.

The Whitecaps' attack has been better of late. They scored three goals in a six-goal thriller against San Jose and they had a 2.8 xG in a 1-0 win over Toronto.

The improvements in the Whitecaps attack combined with FC Dallas' current form could create a high-scoring game to close out the midweek slate.

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