Soccer Selections: Back Everton, Leeds In EPL Relegation Race

Most of the focus on the top five European soccer leagues is on the bottom half of the table.

Titles have been handed out in Spain, Germany and France, while Manchester City and AC Milan have small holds in England and Italy.

The relegation races are much more entertaining right now because multiple teams are involved in each league.

In England, Everton and Leeds United have opportunities on Sunday to create separation between themselves and Burnley.

Everton and Leeds both have winnable games at home, while Burnley has to visit Tottenham, who is still fighting for a UEFA Champions League position.

The other relegation battles across Europe will not be as easy to get out of for certain teams. Real Madrid, Napoli and Borussia Dortmund are among the opponents for some teams in desperate need of three points.

Soccer Selections

Overall Record: 133-147

German Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs. Hertha Berlin (Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET)

Over 3.5 Goals (-125)

Borussia Dortmund has nothing to play for in the final standings, but Saturday's finale is still important for the club.

Saturday serves as a sendoff for Erling Haaland, who is off to Manchester City for next season.

There should be some sort of motivation to feed Haaland so he can put on a show in front of the Dortmund fans one more time.

Hertha Berlin could leave the final third wide open for Haaland and others because it has to go for a win to avoid dropping into 16th place.

Hertha has a three-point lead over Stuttgart, but it has a worse goal differential. If both teams finish level on points, Hertha goes into a relegation playoff against the third-place team from the 2.Bundesliga.

Hertha should create a good amount of scoring chances against a Dortmund defense that lacked quality all season. Dortmund is the only team in the Bundesliga top seven to concede over 50 goals.

The Over 3.5 goals bet hit in five of the last six Dortmund league games, and I expect to see a free-flowing game at Signal Iduna Park.

Stuttgart (+125) vs. FC Koln (Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET)

A similar dynamic is in play for Stuttgart's home match with FC Koln.

Stuttgart needs a win and some help from Dortmund to move from 16th to 15th and secure another season in the Bundesliga.

FC Koln locked up a European position last week and upward movement from seventh will be hard to attain due to a worse goal differential compared to Freiburg in fifth and sixth-place Union Berlin hosting Bochum, who is 11th.

Stuttgart will be playing with much more motivation and that should show over the course of 90 minutes.

Serie A

Udinese (-115) vs. Spezia (Saturday, Noon ET)

Spezia has been downright awful over its last four league games.

Each of Spezia's last four opponents had an expected goals total over two.

The 16th-place side in Serie A conceded 12 goals across those matches, all of which were losses.

Udinese's expected goals total has been 1.8 or higher in three of its last four league matches.

Napoli (-120) vs. Genoa (Sunday, 9 a.m. ET)

Napoli should be much higher on the odds board for its home match against Genoa.

Napoli sits in third place with a 10-3-5 home record and the best expected goals against total inside its home stadium.

Genoa resides in 19th place and it owns a single win on the road in Serie A this season.

Genoa needs points to attempt to stay alive in Serie A, but its best efforts may not good enough against a team with a much more quality in its lineup.

English Premier League

Leeds United (+170) vs. Brighton (Sunday, 9 a.m. ET)

Leeds United needs to win out to feel safe about its Premier League status.

Jesse Marsch's side is tied on points with Burnley, but its goal differential is far worse.

Leeds has an opportunity to move above Burnley on Sunday since it hosts Brighton and Burnley visits Tottenham.

The 18th-place team comes in with little confidence after losing to Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea. It picked up red cards in two of those contests.

Leeds' first goal will be to keep everyone on the field, and as long as it does that, it should put up a fight in a situation that could play to its advantage on Sunday.

Everton (+110) vs. Brentford (Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET)

Everton earned seven points from the last three games to pull up into 16th place in the Premier League.

The Toffees are not clear of danger yet and a home win over Brentford could go a long way in securing safety for next season.

Everton is 8-2-7 with a +2 goal differential inside Goodison Park. It has the most home wins of any team in the bottom half of the Premier League table and it is tied for the second-best goal differential at home among those teams.

Brentford won three of its last five road games, but two of them came against relegated Watford and Norwich City

If you take out those two results, Brentford has one road win in league play dating back to October.

Everton has more on the line and a better mark at home and that should propel it one step closer to safety, or safety itself depending on what happens with Leeds United and Burnley.

La Liga

Cadiz vs. Real Madrid (+125) (Sunday, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Real Madrid put an absolute beat down on Levante on Thursday.

The 6-0 win was the latest attacking masterclass from Los Blancos, who are keeping fresh ahead of the UEFA Champions League final.

Carlo Ancelotti has kept most of his starters in the lineup after clinching the La Liga title, which is why I think Madrid is undervalued at anything below plus-money.

Cadiz enters the weekend two points above the relegation line in Spain, but there is only so much the 17th-place club can do to slow down Real Madrid's world-class attack.

Cadiz put up some decent results of late at home, but two of its three wins came against Elche and Rayo Vallecano, who are at the bottom half of the form table.

Real Madrid is focused on being in top form for the Champions League final and it proved on Thursday that it will not be taking any La Liga opponents lightly.

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