There is no need to overcomplicate the thought process for Game 5 between the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat.
Joel Embiid and James Harden are the Sixers' two best players and they proved how dominant they can be in the Game 4 victory.
The player prop lines have not changed for Philadelphia's superstar tandem and those numbers can be taken advantage of for Tuesday's trip to south Florida.
Embiid was a scoring dynamo in the first half of Game 4, and if he made more free throws, he would have gone well over his point prop.
Harden took over the primary scoring role at points of the game, but he also distributed up to his high standard in Sunday's victory.
NBA Playoff Prop Picks
Overall Record: 27-35 (2-1 Monday)
Joel Embiid Over 25.5 Points (-125)
Joel Embiid would have hit this number in Game 4 if he made two more free throws.
The MVP finalist left four points at the free-throw line in the second half after his 15-point first quarter.
Embiid went 9-for-13 at the line and I expect him to head there plenty of times on Tuesday night because of his advantage against Bam Adebayo, P.J. Tucker and others.
And then of course you can't ignore the MVP snub motivation for Embiid. Nikola Jokic was announced as the league's MVP on Monday morning.
Embiid could have extra motivation from that snub and it could result in a Sixers victory.
Embiid's 30+ point prop sits at +225 at DraftKings. That is an intriguing price because of how often he shot the ball in Game 4. If a few more of those attempts go in on Tuesday, he could easily get to the 30-point mark.
James Harden Over 8.5 Assists (-150)
The price on James Harden's assist prop is high, but I'm taking it anywhere under 10.
Harden dished out nine assists in Game 4. He should easily reach that total in Game 5, especially if his scoring total drops a few points.
The potential extra defensive focus on Harden could open up more opportunities for Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris to score off his passes.
Harden has nine or more assists in six of his 10 playoff games. He could be in double figures if he picks out Embiid more, or dishes out quick passes to others on the perimeter.
Same Game Parlay (+425)
Joel Embiid 30+ points
James Harden 10+ assists
All of my logic above for the Embiid point prop and Harden assist prop apply to this Same Game Parlay.
I think Embiid shoulders more of the scoring load in Game 5 since he has now had two games on the floor to get sharp after his concussion protocol layoff.
The chances of Harden producing a second straight 30-point game are low, so I defer to his assist prop as the one we should attack the most tonight.