You do not stumble upon a solid lock of a pick in Major League Soccer often.
We have one presented to us in the form of FC Dallas on Saturday night.
FC Dallas has a layup of a victory on its hands against the Seattle Sounders. Seattle won the Concacaf Champions League on Wednesday night and will likely use a rotated squad because of how much energy was put into that contest.
FC Dallas might have beaten Seattle straight up because of its early-season form, but it is even more likely to capture three points because of the circumstances in play.
The other matches across the Week 10 slate are harder to pick, but there are some spots across the board that are worth taking advantage of.
MLS Week 10 Bets
Overall Record: 11-11
Seattle Sounders at FC Dallas (-140) (Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Jesus Ferreira To Score (+150)
FC Dallas would be a tough team to beat at home in normal circumstances.
The fourth-place team in the Western Conference is a slam dunk of a pick on Saturday because of Seattle's current situation.
Seattle won the Concacaf Champions League on Wednesday night and could use Saturday's trip to Frisco, Texas as a throwaway game.
The Sounders will likely rest some of their star players and that opens the door for FC Dallas to have an easy night inside Toyota Stadium.
All of the goal scorer props for this game sit at +150 or higher and we can take advantage of that market with FC Dallas expected to roll.
Jesus Ferreira has six goals in the young MLS season. He scored last weekend against Sporting Kansas City and he should be motivated to score more with the USMNT No. 9 spot up for grabs ahead of the World Cup.
Ferreira is FC Dallas' top scorer, he should receive a ton of chances and he sits at a really good price for the situation at hand.
Sporting Kansas City at New York City FC (-1.5) (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET)
New York City FC is playing at "home" at Citi Field on Saturday night because the Yankees are home this weekend.
NYCFC has a better home-field advantage at Yankee Stadium, but the field dimensions may not matter against Sporting Kansas City.
Sporting KC is in for a long season with Alan Pulido and Gadi Kinda out for the year. Peter Vermes' side got lucky last week in its 2-2 draw with FC Dallas. It scored the equalizer up a man.
NYCFC posted 14 goals in its last three games and its attack could eat Sporting KC's defense alive.
NYCFC's defense has also been spectacular. It shutout San Jose and Real Salt Lake in two of its last three league games.
Add in Sporting KC's second-worst expected goals in the Western Conference and you should have an easy multi-goal win for NYCFC.
Colorado Rapids (+170) at San Jose Earthquakes (Saturday, 10 p.m. ET)
San Jose fired Matias Almeyda two weeks ago, but it has not cleaned up the defensive errors that marred his time in charge.
San Jose's expected goals against in the last two games were 2.3 and 2.5. The Quakes gave up three goals each in those clashes with Seattle and NYCFC.
Colorado got its attack on track last week in a 2-0 win over Portland. The Rapids can gain more confidence in the final third against the San Jose defense that is still figuring things out.
Colorado produced 17 shots, six of which went on target, against Portland last week. Gyasi Zardes' presence up top should help deal with Diego Rubio's absence. Rubio picked up a red card against Portland.
Zardes is still a clinical finisher and he should find plenty of holes in the San Jose defense to finish off a few chances and put the Rapids ahead.
Colorado's defense has the third-best xGA in the West. The Rapids produced consecutive clean sheets and they could make life hard on San Jose, especially if they grab an early lead.