04.19 MLB Picks: Robbie Ray Will Continue to Struggle Against Rangers

Record: 8-7-2 (2-1)

After an 0-3 Friday we came back with a really strong day yesterday. We hit on two of the three games and those plays paid out at +128 and +140. It’s not every day where we’re going to find that kind of value, but when it does present itself it’s always good to pounce all over the value. We’re going to try to keep that momentum going in tonight’s MLB slate!

NYY vs. DET ML (+185), 6:40p

Not sure how Gerrit Cole still gets priced like he was a couple of years ago and especially before MLB cracked down on pitchers using substances. Cole has teetered on being bad to downright terrible since the second half of 2021 and that’s continued into 2022. While he isn’t going to allow three runs in four innings in every start, but his FIP and xFIP numbers suggest that Cole likely isn’t going to be a dominant pitcher again any time soon. The risk here is obviously Detroit’s lineup. They’ve so far been one of the worst in baseball, but the Yankees haven’t been that great either. Detroit does have some good bats in the lineup even with Javier Baez out that should be enough to at least give the Tigers a chance in this one.

SFG ML (+108) vs. NYM, 6:40p

Picking on the New York teams today apparently. The Mets however have been much better than the Yankees to start the season. Their lineup has been excellent to start the season as they rank 2nd in wRC+ and 4th in wOBA. So why take the Giants? Well, Logan Webb dating back to last season and early this season has just been better than Max Scherzer. Scherzer is still a very good pitcher, but his peripheral numbers slightly lag behind Logan Webb’s. And while the Mets offense holds a slight advantage that gap actually shortens when it comes to the Giants numbers against RHP. It’s a close matchup and a good one, but I’m willing to take and underdog that I feel has a slight edge. 

TOR vs. BOS ML (-137)

I was wrong. Hand up in the air, fully admit that I was wrong about Yusei Kikuchi. While I started to run a victory lap after his successful first half to the 2021, Kikuchi would go on to completely fall apart. Outside of that portion of the season, Kikuchi’s numbers look awful. His ERA early this season is sitting at 5.40 and his FIP and xFIP look exactly like they did in the second half of last season and his rookie season. Kikuchi allows too much hard contact with 11% of his balls in play to be barrels (7% is average) and an exit velocity of 91.4 MPH (league average is 87.7 MPH). Boston is a slightly above average lineup against LHP and should be able to continue to hit Kikuchi hard. Nathan Eovaldi has a tough matchup against the Blue Jays lineup, but he has continually shown the ability to hold his own against any lineup.

TEX ML (+115) vs. SEA, 9:40p

I’m keeping this on here because I already did the work on it, but this price dropped significantly at the time of me writing this so be aware that I’m not as fond of the price anymore. Still though, there’s a case that could be made for the Rangers here at +115. Robbie Ray who was fantastic last season has some concerning signs early this season. His velocity has dropped and his FIP and xFIP suggest that things could be even worse after just two starts. Jon Gray however has been a bit unlucky to start the season. He’s potentially due for a ton of positive regression and it could happen against a struggling Mariners lineup. The Rangers have also hit LHP really well with a .416 wOBA (2nd in baseball) and a +181 wRC+ (1st against LHP). Again, don’t love that the price has dropped so significantly, but it’s still a play worth looking at.

UPDATE: Moneyline back up to +128. Fire away.

(All odds via betparx)

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