04.18 MLB Picks: White Sox Due For Regression Against Cleveland

Record: 6-6-2 

First major road bump of the season. We went 0-3 on Friday, but that’s to be expected throughout the long baseball season. The good thing is now we can probably start taking stats at face value now that we are another week into the season. Let’s get after today’s slate and hopefully get back on track!

CHW vs. CLE ML (-125), 6:10p

There’s been a bit of confusion today on who would get the starting nod for Cleveland, but it seems like Shane Bieber will be on the mound. If so, -125 is a solid price here for the Guardians. The White Sox have been solid so far this season with a 6-3 record, but the offense has been below average to start the season and now they take on a very good Shane Bieber. White Sox also will likely need to keep up with the Guardians who are third in wOBA and first in wRC+. Dallas Keuchel has also continued to regress and even though the Guardians' splits against LHP are not as good, they’re still good enough to expect them to get to Keuchel.

PHI vs. COL ML (+140), 8:40p

Now I don’t want to pick on the Phillies here too much because there are signs of positive regression coming for the lineup. They still rank in the top 10 in a lot of metrics and the potential for the lineup to explode for a bunch of runs can happen at any time. However, Colorado is also hitting very well to start the season. The Rockies are second in wOBA and eighth in wRC+, while maintaining those numbers against RHP. It’s not every game that Aaron Nola will struggle but the price is just not right for a pitcher that hasn’t earned a -170 moneyline. Add in that he’s a flyball pitcher in the most hitter friendly park in baseball and this is just not an appealing spot for the Phillies.

TB vs. CHC ML (+128)

Not sure how long this is going to last, but for now, the Chicago Cubs are good. They ended up splitting a four-game series against the Rockies, but overall the offense has been better than expected and their metrics against LHP are just as good. There is certainly an advantage here for the Rays with their ace Shane McClanahan on the mound, but Kyle Hendricks is still a solid pitcher that can contain this Rays lineup. Tampa Bay currently ranks 17th in wOBA, 17th in OPS, and 14th in wRC+ against RHP so far this season. It’s been a rough start for the Rays who are now 2-5 as favorites while the Cubs early on are 5-1 as underdogs.

ATL ML (+180) vs. LAD 

Now just to state this early, this has nothing to do with Kershaw regressing from his last start which was a near perfect game. Instead it has more to do with just an incredibly high price for the Dodgers against a good Braves team. Have the Braves gotten off to a slow start? Sure, but they had a pretty good showing against the Padres in a four-game series and the lineup started to show signs of life. What I also like here is that so far the Braves have been pretty good against LHP. The caution is obviously betting on such a big underdog, but that’s always a chance I’m willing to take if the price is right. The Braves are still good this season and it won’t be often you can get a team this good at a price like this. While this could end up as a complete disaster, that’s a risk I’m willing to take for a nice payday.

(All odds via betparx)

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