04.12 MLB Picks - Mariners and Yankees have the Edge against Bad Pitching

Season Record: 5-2-1 (3-1 yesterday)

Thank you, Phillies! Yesterday’s plays were looking to be fine, but the Phillies eighth-inning explosion helped turn it into a very good day. Let’s try to keep the momentum going after a solid 3-1 day. Although, there aren’t too many spots on this slate that were appealing, but that’s to be expected early in the season. Here are three plays though that I have for today’s MLB slate.

BOS vs. DET ML (+108), 1:10p

Out of all the games on today’s slate, this one gave me the most trouble. Initially I thought this could be a good bounce back game for the Red Sox and a veteran, crafty lefty like Rich Hill could stifle this young Tigers lineup. Then as I was about to try and make my case more for the Red Sox I just couldn’t because of their lineup. Trevor Story is out again for the Red Sox and this lineup sorely needs him. The Red Sox last season had worse splits against LHP and are up against a solid lefty in Tyler Alexander. As long as Story is out it is tough to trust this Red Sox lineup at the moment and there’s enough there too actually shift over to the other side to take the Tigers at plus money.

SEA F3 ML (-105) vs. CHW, 4:10p

Seattle was the only bet yesterday that didn’t come through. In fact, the Mariners offense did not show up at all against Twins starter Dylan Bundy and would eventually be shutout. Today’s a new day though and the Mariners struggling offense gets a shot at another bad pitcher. Former Phillies pitcher, and fan favorite, Vince Velasquez gets the start today for the White Sox. His start likely won’t last long, so we’re keeping this bet to just three innings. The Mariners are starting Matt Brash who will be making his Major League debut. Brash has quickly risen in the Mariners farm system and has become one of their top prospects. He has a daunting task ahead of him, but the first time through the order should be just fine for Brash. Seattle F3 at close to even money sounds good to me against Vinny Velo.

TOR vs. NYY ML (-121), 7:05p

This one is a bit tough because I’ve been a fan of now Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. His numbers when he first came to the big leagues weren’t good, but there were plenty of underlying numbers to show that things would turn around. They actually did in the first half of 2021 and he became an All-Star. After that, however, Kikuchi regressed significantly and the numbers suggest that might be here to stay. Couple that with the fact that Kikuchi is a flyball pitcher, is significantly worse against RHB, and allowed 11% of balls in play to be barreled (league average is 7%) you then find Kikuchi in a really bad matchup for today. The Yankees have some hard hitting RHBs and they should propel the Yankees to a win here.

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