CBB Picks: Take Arkansas, Miami as underdogs in regular-season finales

The final regular-season Saturday of the college basketball season gives us the most questionable line of the season.

The Arkansas Razorbacks, who have won 12 of their last 13 games, are a 6.5-point underdog on the road against Tennessee.

It would have been understandable if the Hogs were an underdog of three or four points because Tennessee is very good at home, but this is an outright disrespectful line.

I've trusted Arkansas all season and I'm willing to trust it one more time with a big number in its favor.

Keeping with that theme, I'm running with a handful of familiar teams to close out the regular season with victories in their respective games.

Saturday CBB Picks

Overall Record: 254-273-3 (4-2 Friday)

Arkansas (+6.5) at Tennessee (Noon ET, ESPN)

I'll be honest with you all.

I don't get this Arkansas line.

The Razorbacks have won 12 of their last 13 games and held Tennessee to 48 points back on February 19.

Tennessee is a solid team, but there is too much respect going in favor of the Volunteers.

The Vols could win the game because they are undefeated at home in SEC play, but Arkansas will keep the game within seven points.

Miami (+110) at Syracuse (1 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

I promised that I would run with Miami until the end of the regular season, so here I am.

The Hurricanes have a double bye in the ACC tournament on the line at the Carrier Dome against a very average Syracuse team.

The Orange are on a three-game losing streak with defeats to the other three top teams in the ACC: Duke, North Carolina and Notre Dame.

Virginia Tech (-3) at Clemson (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Virginia Tech can't afford to lose at Clemson on Saturday.

The Hokies are making a late push toward the field of 68 and another victory would place them closer to the right side of the bubble.

Virginia Tech has one loss in its last 10 games and it faces a Clemson's team whose three-game winning streak is a bit deceiving since two of those wins came against Boston College and Georgia Tech.

Indiana at Purdue (-10) (2 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Indiana is walking dead.

The Hoosiers are on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble after their loss to Rutgers and they face a tough trip to West Lafayette.

Purdue needs to rebound from its loss at Wisconsin and it could pummel the Hoosiers with their offense.

There's also the revenge factor playing into this game since Purdue fell at Assembly Hall on January 20.

Middle Tennessee (+110) at Old Dominion (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

I feel like I'm playing the hits one final time with Arkansas, Miami and Middle Tennessee all on my card.

MTSU lost to Charlotte on Wednesday and is dealing with some injury issues, but it should still have enough talent to get past Old Dominion.

The Monarchs average nine fewer points per game than the Blue Raiders. They are 338th in two-point offense.

Middle Tennessee is the better team and it should find a way to wrap up the regular season with a victory.

Stanford at Arizona State (-6) (3 p.m. ET)

Arizona State rescued a disastrous season with six wins in its last seven games.

The Sun Devils have the potential to be a bid thief in the Pac-12 tournament if they play like they are in Las Vegas.

Stanford is heading in the opposite direction. The Cardinal lost six of their last seven contests.

I'm riding with the hotter team at home in what could end up as a fairly easy win given the form of both programs.

Charlotte (-8) at Southern Miss (3 p.m. ET)

Southern Miss is limping toward the finish line in Conference USA.

The Golden Eagles are 1-15 in league play and nine of their last 10 losses have been by double figures.

Charlotte is coming off a momentum-gaining win over Middle Tennessee and it recently beat two of the worst teams in C-USA: FIU and Marshall by nine or more points.

Marshall at Western Kentucky (-9.5) (3 p.m. ET)

Western Kentucky just beat Marshall by 14 points on the road on Wednesday.

The Hilltoppers are back at home on Saturday and they should produce a similar result to finish off the regular season.

Western Kentucky's defense will be the key to victory and it gives up seven fewer points per game than Marshall.

WKU won the last two games at home over weaker teams in C-USA by nine or more points and both of those spreads closed at 8.5 points.

Fresno State at Wyoming (-4.5) (4 p.m. ET)

Wyoming needs to get back on track at home before it heads to the Mountain West tournament.

The Cowboys lost three of their last four games to push them back toward the NCAA tournament bubble.

Saturday should serve as a get-right game for the Cowboys and it should keep them away from trouble for now.

Bellarmine at Liberty (Under 135.5) (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Atlantic Sun Semifinals

Liberty held Bellarmine to 53 points in their first meeting and it is coming off a defensive performance in which it limited Lipscomb to 47 points.

Both Atlantic Sun sides concede fewer than 67 points per game and we could see a tight battle with a spot in the A-Sun tournament final on the line.

North Carolina at Duke (Over 151.5) (6 p.m. ET, ESPN)

There will be plenty of emotion inside Cameron Indoor Stadium in Mike Krzyzewski's home finale.

Duke and North Carolina hit the over in their first meeting in the final minute and I think we see the offenses let loose on Saturday night.

Duke hit the 75-point mark in five of the last seven games and UNC reached the 80-point mark in its last two contests.

Both teams rank in the Top 30 in adjusted efficiency and three-point percentage and we should see those stats translate to the court.

Drake at Missouri State (-2) (6 p.m. ET, CBSSN)

Missouri Valley Conference Semifinals

Missouri State ranks in the Top 25 in adjusted efficiency, two-point offense and offensive effective field-goal percentage.

The Bears beat Drake by a combined nine points in their two regular-season meetings.

Missouri State has been very effective of late with five wins of nine or more points in the last six games.

UC Riverside at Long Beach State (-2.5) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Long Beach State has been one of my favorite mid-major squads to bet on.

LBSU is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games and it can finish out the regular season with a win at home.

I'm willing to take The Beach as a short favorite against a UC Riverside team that it scores seven more points per game than.

Georgetown (+12.5) at Xavier (7 p.m. ET, FS1)

Georgetown showed some life in its last game against Seton Hall after it was confirmed Patrick Ewing will be back for next season.

The Hoyas take on a Xavier team that is fading toward the NCAA tournament bubble.

Xavier should win the game, but there is no way I trust the Musketeers as a 12.5-point favorite in any situation right now.

Long Island University at Wagner (-6) (8 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

NEC Tournament Semifinals

Wagner ranks 25th in three-point defense and it beat LIU by seven and 15 points in the regular season.

The Seahawks are motivated to get to the NEC tournament final to set up a rematch with Bryant, who beat them in the regular-season finale.

Morehead State vs. Murray State (Over 128) (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

OVC Tournament Final

Murray State is in search of a perfect regular and postseason in the Ohio Valley Conference.

The Racers average 79.6 points per game and shoot 48.2 percent from the field.

Both teams are below .500 to the under, but a majority of their recent totals have been in the 130s and 140s.

I think you can see both teams reach 65 points fairly easily for the over to cash.

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