CBB Picks: Take Overs in Arkansas-Alabama, FSU-UNC

Saturday's college basketball slate is set up for a handful of notable overs to hit.

Arkansas-Alabama and Florida State-North Carolina are among the matchups with solid scoring teams that could make the start of the weekend fun to go through.

Typically, I would be scared away from multiple totals set in the upper 140s and the 150s, but I'm more than comfortable with betting a few of those to kick off the day.

More picks for the later games will be added throughout the afternoon. The current plays listed take us through the 2 p.m. ET window.

CBB Picks

Overall Record: 181-202-2

Texas A&M at Auburn (Over 141) (Noon ET, ESPN)

Auburn should bounce back in fine fashion on Saturday afternoon at home against a reeling Texas A&M squad.

Auburn fell short on the road against Arkansas on Tuesday, but it has the perfect setup to avoid consecutive losses.

The last six Texas A&M games have hit the over and the Aggies conceded over 70 points in each of those contests.

The top-ranked Tigers should drive the scoring inside Auburn Arena, but A&M should be good for around 60 points that pushes the total over the number.

The only reason I'm not on the spread is the potential of an A&M backdoor when Auburn's backups are in during the final four or five minutes.

Arkansas at Alabama (Over 157.5) (Noon ET, SEC Network)

Alabama averages 80.9 points per game.

Arkansas averages 78.6 points per contest.

The Crimson Tide defense allows 75.9 points per game and that should be the kicker that makes this a high-scoring game in Tuscaloosa.

Arkansas is one of the hottest and most confident teams in the country right now on a nine-game winning streak and Bama just put up 97 points on Ole Miss on Wednesday. The two sides also rank in the Top 20 in adjusted tempo, so there will be plenty of attempted shots over 40 minutes.

Merrimack at Wagner (-12) (1 p.m. ET)

Wagner should have your attention for NCAA tournament purposes.

The Seahawks are 13-0 in the NEC and they could be a team to ride over the next few weeks as they try to earn the automatic bid from their conference.

Wagner beat Merrimack by 14 points on the road on January 23 and a similar result should play out on Saturday.

Wagner owns the No. 42 two-point offense and No. 32 three-point defense. Merrimack will not be able to counter Wagner's three-point defense with shots in the paint. Merrimack ranks 328th in two-point offense.

Oklahoma at Kansas (-10.5) (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Kansas had five days to stew over its loss to Texas.

The Jayhawks should come out motivated to put that result behind them against an Oklahoma team that has been overmatched in most of its Big 12 games.

Oklahoma lost to Auburn and Texas by double figures on the road and it could be in some sort of let down spot after it pulled off an upset over Texas Tech.

Kansas should roll as it starts a four-game stretch against weaker opposition before its rematch with Baylor.

Rutgers at Wisconsin (-7.5) (2 p.m. ET, FS1)

Oh, I'm so ready to fade Rutgers on the road again.

Rutgers is coming off a huge two-game home stretch in which it beat Michigan State and Ohio State. The Scarlet Knights are terrific inside their own arena and that is why they have a silver of hope to reach the NCAA tournament.

The Scarlet Knights will not be a lock to qualify for the field of 68 because of their awful road form. They lost to Northwestern, Minnesota and Penn State and barely beat Nebraska on the road in conference play.

On Saturday, Rutgers faces an actually good team on the road and that could spell a whole lot of trouble for it against a Wisconsin team looking for an easy win to keep it tied on top of the Big Ten.

Ball State at Buffalo (Over 155.5) (2 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

Buffalovers are BACK!

Buffalo put up 102 points on Tuesday against Eastern Michigan and it faces a Ball State defense that gives up 77.3 points per game.

Ball State is 4-0 to the over in its last four games and both teams average over 75 points per game. It also helps that the two sides rank in the Top 80 in adjusted tempo.

Florida State at North Carolina (Over 146) (2 p.m. ET, ESPN)

North Carolina should kill a struggling Florida State team, but the spread keeps rising and I don't fully trust the Tar Heels to win by double digits.

However, I am confident in the Tar Heels putting up a ton of points. They are 6-1 to the over in the last seven games and they are much better at home.

Florida State ranks 330th in three-point defense and it is averaging 71.2 points per game despite a recent string of losses to some of the worst teams in the ACC.

Davidson (-3) at Rhode Island (2 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

Rhode Island comes into Saturday on a six-game losing streak in which it covered the spread once.

Davidson enters as the much better team and it needs to improve after some tight games against struggling teams in the Atlantic 10.

Saturday is the perfect time for the Wildcats to unleash a double-digit victory over Rhode Island to set the tone for the closing stretch.

Northeastern at Drexel (-6.5) (2 p.m. ET)

This is a strict fade of Northeastern.

Northeastern is 1-12 overall in the CAA and it is 1-9 against the spread in its last 10 games.

Drexel beat the Huskies by eight points in their first meeting this season and the Dragons should find more success on their home floor.

IUPUI at Cleveland State (-22.5) (3 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Cleveland State averages over 23 points per game than IUPUI.

IUPUI ranks 340th or worse in a multitude of offensive categories and the Jaguars have not scored over 60 points in eight of their last nine games.

Cleveland State ranks 28th in two-point percentage and in the Top 60 in a few other offensive categories. That should be a sign of a blowout between the top and bottom teams of the Horizon League.

Indiana at Michigan State (-4) (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

Michigan State needs a bounce-back win at home.

Indiana has not scored over 60 points in each of its last two games and it has three losses in its last five games.

Michigan State ranks ninth in three-point offense and 31st in adjusted efficiency on offense. There is a significant gap to the Hoosiers in both of those categories.

I'll take the Spartans to bounce back with a solid offensive performance.

Bowling Green at Miami (Ohio) (Over 155.5) (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Let's keep with the theme of Saturday overs.

Bowling Green is 8-2 to the over in the last 10 games and it ranks seventh in adjusted tempo.

The Falcons average 82.2 points per game and they give up 77.7 points per contest.

Both teams shoot over 43 percent from the field and that should aid the over in a fast-paced game.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi at Nicholls (-5.5) (4 p.m. ET)

Texas A&M Corpus Christi lost its last two games by nine points each to New Orleans, the top team in the Southland Conference.

Nicholls sits second behind New Orleans in the Southland and it won three of its last four games by at least five points.

A&M-CC is at a disadvantage with its offense that ranks below 270th in two-point and three-point offense.

Lamar at Seattle (-16.5) (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

This is absolutely a deep cut.

Lamar is 0-12 in the WAC and it has to make the long trek to Seattle to play the second-best team in the conference.

Lamar ranks below 300th in a handful of offensive categories and it lost by 22 points in its last game on the road against Cal Baptist.

Seattle should win this game with ease on its home floor.

Marquette (-3.5) at Butler (4:30 p.m. ET, FS1)

Marquette should bounce back from its loss to UConn with a strong performance inside Hinkle Fieldhouse.

Butler has been near the bottom of the Big East all season and it averages 12 points per game less than the Golden Eagles.

Shaka Smart's team ranks in the Top 30 in defensive effective field goal and adjusted efficiency. Marquette should limit Butler's offensive potential and pull away without much of a scare.

Incarnate Word at New Orleans (-9.5) (5 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

New Orleans plays at the 13th fastest pace in the country.

The Privateers have an ideal matchup to wrack up points against an Incarnate Word defense that ranks 340th or worse in five different defensive categories.

New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games, it averages over 10 points per game and shoots over four percent from the field compared to UIW.

SMU (-7) at East Carolina (6 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

SMU is the clear No. 2 in the AAC behind Houston after its win over the Cougars on Wednesday.

The Mustangs are clearly the better team compared to East Carolina, whose form has dipped significantly in the last few weeks.

ECU ranks 313th in two-point offense and it will struggle against a SMU defense that ranks 20th in two-point defense and 73rd in three-point defense.

Notre Dame (+112) at Clemson (7 p.m. ET, ACC Network)

I don't have any confidence in betting on Clemson.

Clemson has two wins in its last nine games and they came against Pittsburgh and Florida State, both of whom are struggling in ACC play.

The Fighting Irish are the better team right now and they have a single loss in their last eight games and that was an ugly offensive night against Duke. I'll take the in-form squad in this matchup.

Charleston at UNC Wilmington (-1.5) (7 p.m. ET)

UNC Wilmington has been undervalued on the spread all season long.

The Seahawks need a home win to stabilize their lead atop the CAA and they should earn that with strong defense against Charleston.

UNCW gives up seven fewer points per game compared to a Charleston team that it beat by eight points in their first meeting.

Mississippi State at LSU (-6) (8 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

LSU should pull far away from Mississippi State with its defense.

The Tigers are one of the best defensive teams in the country and Mississippi State has struggled against some of the better teams in the nation lately.

The Bulldogs lost by eight or more to Kentucky, Texas Tech, Arkansas and Tennessee. We should see that trend continue on Saturday night in Baton Rouge.

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