The closest title race in Europe's top-five domestic leagues takes center stage this weekend.
Inter leads Napoli by one point heading into their head-to-head meeting on Saturday in Naples.
Napoli inched closer to Inter through its win over Venezia and the Nerazzurri's loss to rival AC Milan, who could finish the weekend on top of the table with a win and a draw in Naples.
Inter and Napoli have two of the most prolific offenses in Serie A, but they also have the two best defensive units. Inter and Napoli are two of 10 clubs in Europe's top-five leagues to have fewer than 20 goals allowed.
Napoli has the lowest expected goals against in Serie A and that total is exponentially lower at home compared to everyone else in Serie A.
Napoli's low expected goals against total is the key stat I'm looking at when betting the Serie A showdown on Saturday.
Soccer Selections
Overall Record: 95-106
Serie A: Napoli vs. Inter Milan (Under 2.5 Goals) (Saturday, Noon ET, Paramount+)
Napoli has a 7.4 expected goals against over 12 home games in Serie A play.
The second-place side in Serie A also has the second-lowest overall xGA among the top five leagues in Europe. Manchester City is the only club with a better mark.
Napoli has not allowed multiple goals at the Diego Maradona Stadium in each of its last four home games in Serie A play.
Inter comes into Saturday with four consecutive clean sheets on its travels in the Italian top flight.
Both teams have fantastic attacks, but they will likely be drawn into a stalemate with the top spot in the league table on the line.
La Liga: Sevilla (-1.5) vs. Elche (Friday, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Sevilla is 8-3-0 inside the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan.
Sevilla has a +14 goal differential at home in league play and it needs to pick up three points to remain within striking distance of Real Madrid in the La Liga title race.
Elche picked up nine of its 26 points this season on the road, and it will be at a disadvantage on Friday against the second-place side with title aspirations.
Bundesliga: Borussia Monchengladbach (-150) vs. Augsburg (Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET, ESPN+)
Borussia Monchengladbach earned an important draw on the road at Arminia Bielefeld last week to begin its move away from the top three.
Gladbach can create more separation on Saturday, when it hosts 16th-place Augsburg.
Augsburg is 1-4-6 on the road and it scored just seven tallies away from home in the Bundesliga this season. The 16th-place side was outscored 8-2 in its last two road trips.
Gladback hasn't been great this season, but it needs a home victory to move safely above the bottom three.
Bundesliga: Freiburg (+120) vs. Mainz (Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET, ESPN+)
There is a distinct trend among some of the Bundesliga matchups this weekend.
Mainz, like Augsburg, is one of the worst road teams in the German first division. Mainz is 2-0-8 on its travels and it lost six straight away from home.
Freiburg needs a win on Saturday to keep pressure on Union Berlin and hold the distance between it and RB Leipzig in the race for the fourth UEFA Champions League spot out of Germany.
Freiburg has a +6 goal differential in Bundesliga home games and it ranks fifth in Germany in goals allowed at home.
Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5) vs. Stuttgart (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Bayer Leverkusen's attack is flying.
Leverkusen scored five goals in back-to-back games and produced 14 tallies in the last four contests.
Stuttgart comes into the BayArena with the lowest away goals total in the Bundesliga with six.
In the last six games, Stuttgart allowed multiple tallies to Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig, Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt. Stuttgart was outscored 13-2 in that stretch.
Both of those trends point me in the direction of a Bayer Leverkusen spread bet.
Ligue 1: Monaco (-1.5) vs. Lorient (Sunday, 7 a.m. ET)
Lorient is 0-4-8 with a -19 goal differential on the road in Ligue 1 action.
Lorient is tied for the worst road GD and it has the second-most goals conceded on its travels.
Conversely, Monaco ranks in the top five in home goals scored, home goal differential and points per game at home.
Monaco's defense is coming off back-to-back clean sheets and it won four of its last five games by multiple goals.