If there was ever a time for Arkansas to knock off Auburn, it would be Tuesday.
I'm not bold enough to pick the Razorbacks to beat the top-ranked Tigers, so I'm using my big-game cop-out strategy again.
I'm taking the over in Tuesday night's SEC showdown in Fayetteville.
This strategy has had mixed results this season, but it worked for the Auburn-Kentucky game and there's good reason to expect a game in the 80s at Bud Walton Arena.
Auburn-Arkansas is just one of a few fantastic games on the college hardwood on Tuesday and I was able to find a few picks from elsewhere on the card as well for tonight's selections.
Tuesday CBB Picks
Overall Record: 170-193-2 (3-3-1 Monday; Thanks, Arizona)
North Carolina (-114) at Clemson (6 p.m. ET, ACC Network)
I don't think Clemson is particularly good and North Carolina needs to bounce back from its loss to Duke.
The Tar Heels got a gift from Virginia's upset over Duke on Monday and the ACC regular-season title is still in view, but they can't drop a road game they should win.
Plus it wouldn't hurt the Tar Heels to start winning more games on the road as their NCAA tournament resume comes into question.
Wisconsin at Michigan State (-4) (7 p.m. ET, BTN)
Wisconsin lost by double figures on the road against Ohio State and Illinois.
The Badgers do have a road win over Purdue, but they have not been fantastic on the road against some of the better teams on their schedule.
Michigan State carries much better offensive numbers than its Big Ten title foe. The Spartans are ninth in three-point offense on KenPom. They also have the 34th-best three-point defense. Wisconsin ranks below 250th in both two and three point offense.
LSU (-1.5) at Texas A&M (7 p.m. ET, SEC Network)
LSU and Texas A&M have understandably been pushed to the fringe of the SEC discussion for right now.
LSU just lost three games in a row to TCU, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, while A&M has fallen off a cliff after a nice start in nonconference play.
The Tigers have more talent than the Aggies and they have better defensive numbers. LSU prevailed by six points at home against A&M on January 26 and a similar fate could meet Buzz Williams' team on Tuesday.
Auburn at Arkansas (Over 151.5) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Arkansas ranks 17th in adjusted tempo. Auburn is 74th in adjusted tempo and it ranks 12th in offensive adjusted efficiency.
Arkansas is averaging 78.6 points per game with three totals over 75 in three of its last five contests despite being 310th in three-point shooting on KenPom.
The Hogs have the players to keep pace with Auburn's talent and their offense is more than capable of keeping up with an Auburn offense that has routinely broken 80 points.
If Auburn wins, the Tigers are going to score 80 or more points and that would require Arkansas to score around 70 points, which is well below its average.
No matter how I play this game out in my head, I see enough points for the over to hit.
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo (Over 151.5) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Buffalo ranks 32nd in adjusted tempo.
Eastern Michigan sits 39th in that category.
EMU is 5-0 to the over in its last five games and it conceded over 80 points in each of its last three road trips.
Buffalo should welcome this matchup with open arms after facing Toledo and Ohio in the last few weeks. The Bulls played well away from home against Central Michigan on Saturday, but now that they are rested and away from the grind at the top of the MAC, they should play with a ton of comfort inside their home gym to aid the over.
Illinois at Purdue (-5.5) (9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Purdue beat Illinois in double overtime on January 17 when it was coming out of a rough patch of form.
Purdue lost to Wisconsin and barely escaped Penn State prior to its clash with the Illini. The double-overtime win spurred a run of six wins in seven games. The only blemish was a close loss to Indiana.
The Boilermakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season and they have the matchup in place to neutralize Kofi Cockburn.
Between Zach Edey and Trayveon Williams, Purdue has enough height and strength in the paint to deal with one of the best big men in the country.
If Purdue neutralizes Cockburn, it could take over the contest with its shooting. Purdue ranks in the Top 10 in five offensive metrics and it put up 80 or more points in every game of its five-game winning streak. It won four of those contests by six or more.
Utah State at Wyoming (-1) (9 p.m. ET)
This is the most disrespectful line of the season.
Wyoming is on fire right now and it has been superb inside the Dome of Doom, which is a fantastic arena nickname that I just learned about today.
The Cowboys beat Boise State and Colorado State inside Arena Auditorium and it backed up those victories by beating Fresno State on the road on Sunday.
Utah State put together a nice five-game winning run, but most of those victories came against the bottom half of the Mountain West.