One of the most important rules to live by in college football betting is to not bet against Alabama.
Well here I am doing that exact thing again.
Georgia comes into the College Football Playoff National Championship Game as a 2.5-point favorite and I've loved that line ever since it came out.
I promised myself I would stick with my gut on the final big play of the college football season and that's what I'm doing.
CFB National Championship Picks
Overall Record: 125-110-1
Georgia (-2.5) vs. Alabama
I was wrong to bet against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
The Crimson Tide had more to play for since Georgia was going to be in the College Football Playoff regardless of the result.
Alabama is now 4-0 against a Kirby Smart-coached Georgia team and three of those wins came in championship settings.
Georgia should have learned over the last month what to fix for its rematch against Alabama. Some of those fixes were on display in the Orange Bowl win over Michigan.
Georgia's defense returned to its dominant self by limiting the Wolverines to 328 total yards and 11 points. That is a positive sign for how the Bulldogs approach Bryce Young.
The Bulldogs started strong against Alabama on December 4, but the game flipped after Bama controlled the second quarter.
Jordan Davis, Nakobe Dean and the UGA defense should have a better hold on how to pressure the Heisman Trophy winner in Indianapolis. That could lead to some misguided throws and punts in the first half.
Stetson Bennett also showed me something in the Orange Bowl. He aired the ball out with ease and I'm convinced his wide receiver corps will be healthy enough to gash the Alabama defense.
Tight end Brock Bowers gave Alabama all sorts of problems in the SEC Championship Game. Add in a healthier George Pickens and a running back group that can succeed in the passing game and you have a unit that can hurt Alabama on a consistent basis.
Now that you've read how I've talked myself into Georgia, let's break down why the Over will hit.
Over 52.5
The National Championship Game has had fewer than 50 points once in seven finals of the playoff era.
Of course, Alabama and Georgia played in the one exception to the rule, but one game in 2018 will not scare me from betting the over.
Georgia's offense did not get as much publicity as its defense. The Bulldogs averaged 448.4 total yards and 39 points per game.
The Bulldogs failed to score 30 points on two occasions. They produced 10 points in the opener against Clemson and 24 in the SEC Championship Game.
Alabama's offense will score on UGA's defense at some point. The Crimson Tide hit the 40-point mark in nine of their 14 games.
All I'm asking for here is the game to be in the high 20s or low 30s. That is very attainable with the talent on both offenses.
I don't think either side will post a 40-50-point total, but there will be enough touchdowns scored to cash one final over of the college football season.
Player Props
Only available in New Jersey.
Brock Bowers (UGA TE)
Over 4.5 Receptions & Anytime TD Scorer (-130)
Brock Bowers tortured the Alabama defense in the SEC Championship Game.
The freshman tight end had 10 catches for 139 yards and a touchdown.
Bowers will be Stetson Bennett's top target all night. He caught 15 passes in the last two games and his highest reception totals of the season came against Alabama, Michigan and Clemson.
Bowers scored six of his 12 touchdowns in the last four games and he should have a nose for the end zone at Lucas Oil Stadium.
George Pickens (UGA WR)
Over 2.5 Receptions & Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
At some point. the Georgia offense has to unleash George Pickens.
Pickens is the best individual talent in the UGA passing attack. He has been working his way back from an ACL tear he suffered in the spring.
Pickens only had three catches in the last two games, which is why his props are set so low, but those numbers present a great opportunity to buy low on a fantastic talent.
I'm willing to take the risk on Pickens because he will be needed as an extra weapon to beat Alabama's secondary.
Cameron Latu (Bama TE)
Over 16.5 Receiving Yards & Anytime TD Scorer (+370)
Seven of Cameron Latu's 21 receptions went for touchdowns.
Latu's only catch in the Cotton Bowl was a nine-yard touchdown reception.
The tight end is a favorite red zone target of Bryce Young and he is well worth the value at +370 to score a touchdown.
Jameson Williams has no value from a betting perspective because of the high props set in his favor.
If you bet Alabama props, look to guys like Latu and Slade Bolden that are reliable in red-zone situations and carry higher prop value.