I'm officially cursed when it comes to college basketball betting.
I was on the way to finishing even for Wednesday's slate, which is a massive accomplishment at this rate, and then Texas Tech banked in a shot at the end of the game to ruin my Iowa State bet.
I took that as a sign from the gambling gods that I need to be faded by the entire universe for a while.
The research and bets are still going to be at a high level, but the results just haven't been there and last night was proof of that.
Anyway, on to Thursday's picks.
Thursday CBB Picks
Overall Record: 69-90-1 (1-3 Wednesday)
Northwestern State vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi (-7.5) (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
My bet in favor of Texas A&M Corpus Christi is mostly a fade of Northwestern State.
The Demons are one of the worst teams in Division 1. They rank 338th overall on KenPom and have the fifth-worst two-point defense.
Northwestern State was consistently blown out by power-conference teams and mid-majors in nonconference play. Texas A&M-CC comes in at 11-3 with a handful of victories over teams listed 300th or worse on KenPom's overall rankings.
UT Arlington at Georgia State (-7.5) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Georgia State has been as good as covering the spread lately as I have been winning bets.
Maybe that's why I'm drawn to the Panthers tonight to cover for the first time in six games.
Georgia State has one of the more drastic offensive stat lines. The Panthers are 25th in three-point offense and 354th in two-point offense on KenPom.
The good news for the Panthers is UT-Arlington just isn't that great offensively as a whole. The Mavericks average nine fewer points per game than Georgia State and have some brutal offensive metrics.
Illinois-Chicago at Wright State (-7.5) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Wright State appears to have turned the corner in its season.
The Raiders are on a four-game winning streak that includes an upset road win over NC State.
UIC put together a mixed bag of results recently and is 2-5 against the spread in its last seven games.
Give me the hot hand at home please.
Ohio State (+3.5) at Indiana (7 p.m. ET, FS1)
Ohio State and Indiana come into Thursday's matchup at Assembly Hall off disappointing results of different fashions.
Ohio State pulled out an overtime win at Nebraska and Indiana came up short on the road at Penn State.
The Buckeyes have been the more consistent team this season and that's where I find the edge in this contest. Indiana has a strong paint presence in Trayce Jackson-Davis, but that can be neutralized by E.J. Liddell.
The Hoosiers have given up 61.6 points per game, but their schedule has not been difficult. Their best victory is over an average Notre Dame team on a neutral court.
Ohio State has wins over Duke and Wisconsin and played Xavier and Florida tight. The Buckeyes are the better-tested team at this point in the season, which leads me to their side.
Arkansas State at Louisiana (-4.5) (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Louisiana is 6-0 against the spread in its last six games.
The Ragin' Cajuns are back inside the Cajundome for the first time in a month on Thursday to host Arkansas State.
Arkansas State has a better offense, but Louisiana ranks ninth in three-point defense on KenPom and it held its last two opponents under 65 points.
I'm banking on the trends to continue in favor of Louisiana on its home court.
Iowa at Wisconsin (Under 147) (9 p.m. ET, FS1)
I find little joy in betting an under on an Iowa game, but it's the right thing to do here.
Wisconsin can dictate the matchup through its defense. The Badgers give up 63.6 points per game and they just held Purdue to 69 points.
The Badgers are 5-2 to the over in their last seven games, but none of those totals have been above 140 points.
Greg Gard's team can slow down the pace and frustrate Iowa's scorers. Iowa can still win the game, but it may need to do so with a score in the high 60s or low 70s.