CBB Picks: Ride with North Carolina Over, LSU Under on Tuesday Slate

I guess I'm going to call today "Trendy Tuesday."

It just so happens that I'm riding with a few teams that have been fantastic against the spread, or to one side of the over/under.

If you've bet on college basketball outside of New Jersey, you know that Monmouth is the best team against the spread in Division 1. You can't bet on college teams or games located in Jersey, so you'd have to cross the Pennsylvania border to profit on the Hawks.

A few other teams on Tuesday's slate, including North Carolina's opponent, Furman, have been fantastic to the over and I'm riding with some of those trends.

And then there's the over's worst nightmare, the LSU Tigers. LSU is 8-1 to the under and its defense has the potential to shut down another mid-major foe.

Tuesday CBB Picks

Overall Record: 49-61 (7-6 Saturday)

Alabama A&M at Troy (-10.5) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Alabama A&M is one of the worst offensive teams in Division 1.

The Bulldogs are shooting 34.3 percent from the field and they failed to hit the 60-point mark in four of their six losses.

Troy averages 17.5 more points per game and shoots a whole 10 percent better than its in-state foe for Tuesday night.

As long as the Trojans do not play down to their competition, they should cruise to a double-digit victory.

St. Francis (PA) at Hartford (Over 147.5) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

St. Francis (PA) is the last remaining perfect team to the over in Division 1.

The Red Flash out of the Northeast Conference have consistently hit overs in the high 140s and they have a matchup that suits the over against Hartford.

Hartford ranks 97th in offensive three-point percentage on KenPom. St. Francis is 350th in three-point defense. That is a mismatch the Hawks could exploit to put up a high volume of points.

Both teams are shooting over 45 percent from the field and concede over 75 points per game, two more stats that suggest the high over is well in play.

UNC Greensboro at Towson (-6.5) (7 p.m. ET, FloHoops)

Towson is one of the best teams against the spread at 9-2.

The Tigers host a demoralized UNC Greensboro side on Tuesday night. The Spartans scored just 36 points in a 40-point loss to Tennessee on Saturday.

UNCG averages 78 points allowed per game on the road and it could be outmatched against a Towson that scores close to nine more points per game.

Towson has not played at home much, but in between a bunch of buy games, it has controlled its last three contests inside SECU Arena with an average margin of victory of 16 points.

Monmouth (+1.5) at Yale (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Monmouth is 8-2 straight up and 10-0 against the spread.

The Hawks have victories over Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and St. Joseph's as part of one of the more impressive nonconference resumes that belongs to a low mid-major.

Monmouth puts its perfect ATS record on the line against Yale, who just lost to the Hawks' MAAC conference mate, Iona, on Sunday.

Both of these teams face a quick turnarounds from Sunday games, and in that situation, I prefer the better defense. Monmouth gives up three fewer points per game and it ranks 20th in defensive effective field-goal percentage and 37th in defensive three-point percentage on KenPom.

Northwestern State at LSU (Under 144.5) (7 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

LSU is one of the best defensive teams in the country.

Will Wade's team ranks inside the top 25 in a handful of defensive metrics on KenPom and it is 8-1 to the under.

Northwestern State is a 35-point underdog to its in-state foe and it ranks below 300th in most defensive categories.

LSU should put this game away by halftime, which will leave little motivation for a high-scoring second half and minutes for players deep on the Tigers bench.

Furman at North Carolina (Over 158) (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

The Furman-North Carolina game is screaming at you to take the over.

Furman is 7-0-2 to the over and it averages 83.9 points per game. North Carolina has a decent record to the total, but it averages 81.1 points per game. Both teams are shooting over 47 percent from the field. Furman and UNC also rank inside the top 15 in three-point percentage.

Everything about this matchup screams for the over to hit and the two teams might clear the high number with ease.

Jackson State (+13.5) at Northern Iowa (8 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

Jackson State just played in one of the most hideous offensive games of the season: a 47-37 loss to Iowa State.

The SWAC program is not going to put up a ton of points in any game, but has been fairly effective against the spread. Jackson State covered in three of its last four games as a double-digit underdog.

Northern Iowa is 2-5 and it has not covered against five of its six Division 1 opponents. The Panthers have their offensive limits right now too, which could make this game one of the lowest-scoring games on Tuesday's slate.

Louisiana at Houston (-23) (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Houston is the rare case of a team with a handful of Top 20 offensive and defensive metrics.

The Cougars have torn apart most of their weaker nonconference opposition, and they have all the motivation to get back on track against Louisiana after a tough loss to Alabama on Saturday.

Houston is 2-0 as a favorite of 23 or more points and its defense could wreak all sorts of havoc on a Louisiana offense that ranks 329th on KenPom in offensive two-point percentage.

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