Soccer Selections: Expect Goals in Borussia Dortmund-Bayern Munich clash


The most anticipated matchup of the German Bundesliga season produced plenty of fireworks over the last few years.

Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich combined for at last four goals in five of their last six meetings.

Saturday's clash in Dortmund has all the ingredients for yet another high-scoring affair. Dortmund has a leaky defense, Erling Haaland is healthy and Robert Lewandowski is playing his first match since he was passed up on by the Ballon d'Or for Lionel Messi.

Bayern is the expected favorite and it could use a win to gain some much-needed separation in the Bundesliga title race. Bayern leads Dortmund by one point going into Saturday.

While Bayern should win the game, the best way to bet the high-profile clash is the over 3.5 goals.

Below is a look at all of my weekend soccer picks, including Der Klassiker.

Weekend Soccer Picks

Overall Record: 72-78

La Liga: Sevilla (+100) vs. Villarreal (8 a.m. ET, ESPN+)

My approach to betting La Liga this weekend is to rely on some of the best home teams in Spain.

Sevilla is 5-1-0 on home soil with a +11 goal differential. It conceded six goals at home in league play.

Villarreal is 0-5-2 away from home in La Liga and it has only scored four times on its travels.

Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen (-2) vs. Greuther Furth (Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET, ESPN+)

Greuther Furth can't stop conceding goals.

The last-place side in the Bundesliga conceded 10 goals in the last two games, including six to Hoffenheim last weekend.

Greuther Furth conceded 39 goals in 13 matches played. It has lost 12 of those contests and drawn once.

Bayer Leverkusen is 15 spots above Greuther Furth in the league table and it has leading scorer Patrik Schick back in the lineup.

Greuther Furth lost by multiple goals in four of its last five games and there is no end in sight for the poor defensive record.

EPL: Southampton vs. Brighton (Under 2.5 Goals) (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET, Peacock)

Southampton's home mark and Brighton's road record are eerily similar.

The Saints have had 13 goals scored in seven games at St. Mary's. The Seagulls have had 14 goals go in during their matches away from the Amex.

The two clubs also reside in the bottom six of the goals scored table in the EPL.

Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich (Over 3.5 Goals) (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich are the two best teams and the top two scoring teams in the Bundesliga.

Bayern has the better defense and it should be the favored side. Dortmund allowed 19 goals in league play and it has gone five games in a row without a clean sheet.

The defenses could be no match for Erling Haaland and Robert Lewandowski, who are responsible for seven of the last 10 goals scored in the rivalry.

Haaland should play around 60 minutes as he works back to full match fitness from an extended injury layoff. Lewandowski has more motivation that usual because he was snubbed by the Ballon d'Or voters. Lewandowski has 10 goals in his last seven matches.

Everything is pointing to Saturday's match in Dortmund being the most entertaining game of the soccer weekend.

EPL: Watford vs. Manchester City (-2) (Saturday. 12:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

Manchester City is one of three EPL teams with a +20 goal differential or better.

The Citizens found the back of the net on at least two occasions in each of their last four league games.

Watford gave up six goals in its last two games, which were losses to Leicester City and Chelsea. Saturday's match against Manchester City comes at the end of a brutal three-match stretch and it could be gashed by the second-place side in the EPL and it may not have an offensive response since City allowed eight goals in league play.

La Liga: Rayo Vallecano (+110) vs. Espanyol (Sunday, 8 a.m. ET, ESPN+)

I'm following the same strategy with Rayo Vallecano as I am with Sevilla.

Rayo is even better at home than Sevilla. It is 6-1-0 with a +13 goal differential. Only three goals have been scored against Rayo in home games.

Espanyol, like Villarreal, does not have a win on the road in La Liga play. Espanyol and Villarreal are the only two teams outside of the relegation zone in La Liga without a road win.

Ligue 1: Montpellier vs. Clermont Foot (Over 2.5 Goals) (Sunday, 9 a.m. ET)

I'm going back to the Clermont Foot overs.

Over 2.5 goals hit in three of the last four Clermont games. The 17th-place side in France has not held a clean sheet in the last six games.

Montpellier ranks sixth in Ligue 1 in goals scored with 24 and it just put three goals past Metz on Wednesday.


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