CFB Week 13 Picks; Ride with Ohio State, Oklahoma State in Rivalry Week

Rivalry Week is infinitely better when there are major implications attached to the games.

The Ohio State-Michigan and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State matchups on Saturday have all sorts of postseason dynamics attached to them.

Ohio State and Oklahoma State are favored to win those games, advance to their respective conference championship games and potentially qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Michigan and Oklahoma have the same things on the line, but they may be outmatched by the dominant Buckeyes offense and the controlling Cowboys defense.

The Wolverines and Sooners are underdogs on the point spread for a reason and I believe the lines are accurate.

Saturday CFB Picks

Overall Record: 87-72 (5-1 Friday)

Ohio State (-7.5) at Michigan (Noon ET, Fox)

Let's start by saying this.

Ohio State took advantage of a perfect mismatch to beat Michigan State last week. The Spartans have one of the worst passing defenses in the FBS.

Michigan has a better overall defense than Michigan State. The Wolverines allow 16.3 points and 306.8 yards per game.

So Michigan has a chance to cover or win?

In the words of the great Lee Corso: "Not so fast, my friend."

Ohio State is too deep at the offensive skill positions and C.J. Stroud has been fantastic over the last month to move into a two-horse race for the Heisman Trophy with Bryce Young.

The Wolverines could keep "The Game" close for a half, but Ohio State is the better team and is two wins away from another College Football Playoff berth.

Texas Tech at Baylor (-13.5) (Noon ET, FS1)

Baylor has everything to play for on Saturday and Texas Tech does not.

The Bears can get into the Big 12 Championship Game with a victory at home on Saturday and a loss by Oklahoma to Oklahoma State.

Texas Tech is already bowl eligible and it hired its new head coach, Baylor linebackers coach Joey McGuire.

The Red Raiders suffered 20-plus-point losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas this season and they just got shutout by Oklahoma State at home.

Tech's offense should experience more struggles in Waco against a Baylor defense that allows 19 points per game.

Wake Forest at Boston College (Over 65.5) (Noon ET, ESPN2)

Wake Forest has been one of the best over teams in the country.

Boston College has been a terrific under squad in the last month.

Wake's porous defense gives the edge to the over on Saturday afternoon. The Demon Deacons allow 449.4 total yards per game and 30.8 points per contest.

Boston College has a solid offensive combination in quarterback Phil Jurkovec and running back Patrick Garwo that could wreak havoc on the Wake defense, and potentially play spoiler.

Wake Forest needs a victory to advance to the ACC Championship Game. A loss in Chestnut Hill puts NC State into the conference title clash.

Wake's offense should eventually put it in front for good, but BC can provide a tough test for the Demon Deacons.

Louisiana Tech (-3.5) at Rice (1 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Motivation can be a hard thing to figure out this time of year for three-win teams.

Louisiana Tech has one win since the start of October and it just fired longtime head coach Skip Holtz.

Holtz agreed to coach the season finale against Rice and that should give the Bulldogs players enough motivation to send him off with a victory.

Rice is on a four-game losing streak and it conceded over 30 points in each of those games. The Owls are dead and just waiting for the end of the season.

UTSA at North Texas (Over 59.5) (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

The Over is 3-1 in the last four UTSA games.

The Roadrunners put up 34 points last week on a UAB defense that is supposed to be one of the best in Conference USA.

North Texas is on a four-game winning streak in which it hit the 30-point mark on three occasions.

Both teams average 439 total yards per game and UTSA should get North Texas' best shot with an undefeated record on the line.

Florida International at Southern Miss (-13.5) (3 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

Florida International has been one of the best teams to fade all season long.

FIU is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games. The Panthers scored 10 points or less in three of their last four games.

Southern Miss punished a struggling Louisiana Tech team last week with a 35-19 win. The Golden Eagles have not been great in their own right, but they at least have a chance to create some positive momentum going into the offseason.

Arizona at Arizona State (Over 53.5) (4 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)

Arizona is 3-1 to the Over in its last four games.

The only game in which the Over did not hit during that stretch was a game against Cal in which the Golden Bears were dealing with COVID-19 related absences.

Arizona State needs to finish the regular season on a high note after struggling against some of the best teams in the Pac-12.

Arizona gives up 30.8 points per game and Arizona State allows 21.5 points per contest. It may not be the best game on the schedule, but at least we will see some points.

Wisconsin at Minnesota (Over 39.5) (4 p.m. ET, Fox)

Wisconsin is 3-1-1 to the over in its last five games.

Minnesota is 3-1 to the over in its last four trips to the gridiron.

I'm willing to take the over on the low total because both offenses have played well of late and the trends point me in that direction.

Clemson at South Carolina (Over 43.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

Clemson hit the over in each of its last four games.

In fact, the Tigers hit Saturday's total for the Palmetto State showdown on their own in the last two games against UConn and Wake Forest.

Clemson has finally found something on offense and South Carolina is playing with confidence after wins over Auburn and Florida.

Don't let the low total influence how you view this game. It could actually be an entertaining rivalry contest.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-4.5) (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)

Oklahoma State's defense has been fantastic all season long.

The Cowboys allow 14.9 points per game, which is 10 points lower than their Bedlam opponents.

Oklahoma has been a mess on both sides of the ball at points this season, while the Pokes have been consistently good in most facets of the game.

Oklahoma State can get into the Big 12 Championship Game with a victory and it can also keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive with a win in Stillwater.

Notre Dame (-20.5) at Stanford (8 p.m. ET, Fox)

Notre Dame has been a mean, green covering machine lately.

The Fighting Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.

Notre Dame destroyed a struggling Georgia Tech, 55-0, at home last week and it should find blood in the water against Stanford.

The Cardinal have not won since their upset win over Oregon on October 2. They allowed four of their last five opponents to score 34 points or more. Stanford hasn't scored more than 14 points itself in the last month.

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