CFB Week 11 Picks: Tennessee to Cover Against UGA, Oklahoma Over Baylor


The Georgia Bulldogs are without a doubt the top team in the FBS.

Kirby Smart's team has not been significantly tested by any SEC offense yet. That changes on Saturday against a fascinating Tennessee Volunteers team.

Josh Heupel turned the Tennessee program around faster than anyone expected and the Vols have a chance to showcase how far they have come on Saturday afternoon.

The Vols may not upset Georgia outright, but they can certainly keep the score within three touchdowns with how fast they find the end zone.

Saturday's game at Neyland Stadium is one of two big SEC clashes this weekend, the other involves Texas A&M and Ole Miss. The Aggies are still playing for the SEC West title as long as they remain one loss behind Alabama in conference play.

In total, there are four Top 25 matchups across the Week 11 slate and our college football experts here at The Gambler have plays for two of those contests in addition to a slew of other plays.

Joe Tansey

Overall Record: 69-54 (5-1 MACtion)

Houston at Temple (Over 54.5) (Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN+)

Temple’s defense is bad.

Houston has a chance to hit the over on its own. The Cougars just put up 54 points on South Florida last week.

Houston’s defense is not as good as its offense. It allows almost 300 total yards and 22.2 points per game.

The Owls let up 45 or more points in three of their last four games and I don’t trust them to get any better. Temple's offense is good for one or two scores that can help pad the final score.

Rutgers at Indiana (Over 41.5) (Saturday, Noon ET, BTN)

This is a water finds its level game.

Rutgers and Indiana have been busy losing to some of the best teams in the Big Ten. Such is life when there are three top 10 teams in one division.

The Scarlet Knights and Hoosiers both allow a combined 55 points per game and they allow the same amount of yardage. Look for both offenses to break free from their struggles for a competitive back-and-forth contest.

UConn at Clemson (Over 51.5) (Saturday, Noon ET, ACC Network)

Alright Clemson, now is the time to unleash your offense.

The Tigers put up 30 points in each of their last two games and now they get a chance to beat up on UConn.

UConn concedes 36 points and 437.4 yards per game. Clemson has a chance to hit the over on its own at home on Saturday.

Western Kentucky (-18.5) at Rice (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Western Kentucky is hitting its stride.

The Hilltoppers are on a four-game winning streak and they have covered a double-digit spread in three of their last four games.

WKU averaged 42.5 points in the last four games, while Rice is coming off a pair of overtime losses. The Owls have been shutout on the road twice this season against Texas and UTSA.

Georgia at Tennessee (+19.5) (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

Tennessee’s offense can do something that other Georgia opponents can’t: score fast.

The Volunteers have thrived in Josh Heupel’s first season as head coach. They are coming off a 45-point output against Kentucky.

UGA’s defense should get enough stops to pull off the victory, but Tennessee has the potential to keep it close in the first half and/or sneak in a garbage time score to cover the spread.

Duke at Virginia Tech (-10.5) (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network)

The perfect cure for Virginia Tech’s woes is a home game against Duke.

The Blue Devils are 0-5 in the ACC and they have not covered as a double-digit underdog in four of those defeats.

Virginia Tech is coming off a disappointing loss to Boston College and it needs a strong performance to attempt to save Justin Fuente’s job and get to bowl eligibility.

Boston College (+100) at Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

Boston College delivered that disappointing loss to Virginia Tech last Friday with Phil Jurkovec back in at quarterback.

The Eagles struggled during Jurkovec’s injury layoff and they should look like a much better team with him for the rest of ACC play.

Georgia Tech comes in on a three-game losing streak and with losses in four of its last five games. The Yellow Jackets gave up an average of 39.8 points in those defeats.

With BC back to looking competent, I’m running with the Eagles to win outright on the road.

Florida International at Middle Tennessee (-10.5) (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3)

FIU is one of the worst teams in the FBS.

The Panthers are 1-8 overall and they have not won in Conference USA play.

Middle Tennessee beat UConn and Southern Miss, two of the other worst FBS teams, by double figures in its two games before losing to Western Kentucky.

FIU is 1-4 ATS in its last five games and it hasn’t hit the 20-point mark in two of its last three contests.

Southern Miss at UTSA (Over 54.5) (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

UTSA is an undefeated machine that can’t be stopped.

The Roadrunners average 39.9 points per game and they are facing a Southern Miss defense that allows 30.2 PPG.

UTSA put up at least 44 points in each of its last four games, so all I need here is about 7-10 points from Southern Miss.

Maryland at Michigan State (-12.5) (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, Fox)

I feel bad for Maryland.

Michigan State should take all of its frustration out on the Terrapins to prepare for its contest with Ohio State.

Maryland has not looked good against any of the top Big Ten teams. It lost by 17 points to Penn State last week in a game that got away from it fast.

I have no trust in the Terps to stay within two touchdowns and this could be a game for Kenneth Walker to pad his Heisman resume.

South Carolina at Missouri (Over 54.5) (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, SEC Network)

South Carolina would be in a prime letdown spot against any other team in the SEC.

The Gamecocks blew out Florida last week and they should find a similar level of offensive success against a terrible Missouri defense.

Mizzou allows 36.8 points per game and was methodically gashed for 43 points by Georgia last week.

South Carolina gives up 23.7 points and 345.4 yards per game, so it’s not like the Gamecocks are top defenders either, and that should help Mizzou put points on the board.

Arkansas State at UL-Monroe (-2.5) (Saturday, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN+)

Arkansas State should be a popular team to fade this weekend.

The Red Wolves are 1-8 and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

UL-Monroe started building in the right direction with wins over Liberty and South Alabama. The War Hawks went through some struggles in the last two weeks, but they are clearly the better team of the two in this matchup.

Give me UL-Monroe as the short favorite on home turf.

Texas A&M (-2.5) at Ole Miss (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Texas A&M’s defense should outweigh Ole Miss’ offense.

The Aggies allow 14.7 points per game and they have conceded 17 points in their last two games, the last of which was at home against Auburn.

Ole Miss’ offense has not been that impressive of late. The Rebels only managed 27 points against Liberty and were held to 20 points by Auburn two weeks ago.

Additionally, the Aggies are playing for something more on Saturday. If they keep winning and Alabama loses one of its SEC games, they will play for the SEC title against Georgia.

TCU at Oklahoma State (-11.5) (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox)

Oklahoma State is quietly still in playoff contention.

The Cowboys are up to 10th in the playoff rankings and they have two potential meetings with Oklahoma ahead.

Mike Gundy’s team is playing great defense. It gave up three points to both Kansas and West Virginia.

TCU’s interim head coach bump is over after Jerry Kill led the Horned Frogs to a win over Baylor.

Look for OK State to keep the defensive momentum rolling at home against the Horned Frogs.

Jon Jansen

Overall Record: 10-19 (1-2 last week)

East Carolina (+5.5)vs. Memphis (Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN+)

Back to the AAC again this week!

Memphis was a winner last week, but I'm going against them on Saturday.

The East Carolina Pirates have quietly put together their best season in a LONG time and they are on the verge of clinching a bowl berth.

The matchup here is also very favorable for the Pirates. Memphis is primarily a passing team, but the secondary of ECU has not allowed a passer of over 200 yards in four straight games. Add to that ECU being able to control the clock with its outstanding running back duo, this seems like a game that lines up perfect for the Pirates.

Oklahoma (-5.5) at. Baylor (Saturday, Noon ET, Fox)

This is the first statement game for Oklahoma in 2021.

The Sooners have been playing their best football lately and it's largely due to the emergence of freshman quarterback Caleb Williams.

Williams is a perfect fit for this Lincoln Riley Air Raid offense and it's continuing to get better. Baylor's offense has slowly been regressing each week and it lost in its last game. I think Baylor will have a hard time keeping up in this one.

Maryland at Michigan State (-12)

The Spartans likely ruined any playoff chances they may have had after their loss to Purdue last week.

However, this Michigan State squad is still very good and has a Heisman finalist in the backfield.

Maryland has been downright atrocious this season, getting blown out by nearly every quality opponent. The Spartans should come out with some motivation and dominate this Maryland team. The only concern is the Spartans secondary against a decent Terrapins passing offense, but I don't trust the Terps offense on the road here.


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