Soccer Selections: Siding with Chelsea, Inter in Weekend's Marquee Matches

There’s nowhere to go but up. 

Last weekend’s Soccer Selections produced an 0-8 record. 

I recovered a bit during the midweek matches, but not enough to fully say I’m out of fade territory. 

I’m keeping it simple this weekend by siding with a handful of teams that I trust across Europe as well as one trend I’ve been on for a few weeks. 

Let’s get to the picks. 

Soccer Selections (Overall Record 29-27)

Bundesliga: Greuther Furth vs. Bayern Munich (-2.5; -145) (Friday, 2:45 p.m. ET) 

It can be difficult to bet Bayern Munich at a reasonable price against any of the bottom feeders in the Bundesliga. 

Last week’s 7-0 win over Bochum gave us a betting blueprint for those types of matches. 

If Bayern is going to score an abundance of goals against weaker teams, a high spread or over is the best way to go. 

Greuther Furth has a -10 goal differential through five matches and it lost by multiple goals on three occasions. 

Bayern outscored its last three Bundesliga opponents by a 16-1 score line. 

Bayern should dominate this matchup and win by multiple goals, so I feel comfortable with the big spread in this spot. 

Premier League: Chelsea (+165) vs. Manchester City (Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET) 

Chelsea is the best contender to Manchester City in the Premier League. 

The Blues have a fantastic defensive record, as they conceded once in five matches. 

They also have the powerful striker in Romelu Lukaku that can score in a moment of brilliance in a tight match. 

Manchester City has the same defensive record as Chelsea right now, but it lacks a true lethal striker in its setup. 

Raheem Sterling, Kevin De Bruyne and others are capable of scoring, but they are asked to fill other roles across the attack, while Lukaku can focus on going one-on-one with defenders and creating moves with his hold-up play. 

Lukaku will be the best goal scorer on the pitch and Chelsea is playing at home. I’ll take those factors in my favor on a pretty even line.

Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen (-135) vs. Mainz 05 (Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET) 

Bayer Leverkusen’s only loss in Bundesliga play came against Borussia Dortmund. 

The fourth-placed side in Germany defeated Borussia Monchengladbach, Augsburg and Stuttgart by multiple goals in three of its last four games. 

Mainz has one of the best defensive records in Germany with two goals conceded, but it has not come across many of the league’s top teams yet. 

Mainz beat RB Leipzig to start the campaign, but that win carries less significance right now since Leipzig is struggling to get going under Jesse Marsch. 

Serie A: Inter (+100) vs. Atalanta (Saturday, Noon ET) 

Typically, the team with the most goals scored in an Atalanta matchup is the side from Bergamo. 

However, Inter comes into Saturday’s clash at the San Siro with the much more prolific attack. It has 18 goals during its 4-1-0 start in Serie A. 

Inter blew past Bologna and Fiorentina with nine goals in those two games. It faces an Atalanta side that produced six goals in its opening five matches. 

Atalanta looked better in its last two league matches, but it has not beaten Inter in the last five matches between the two sides. 

La Liga: Sevilla (-160) vs. Espanyol (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET) 

Sevilla has had the best defensive start in La Liga. 

The concession of two goals over five games allowed Sevilla to sit comfortably in fourth place to begin the season. 

Espanyol is off to a decent start in 13th place, but it does not have the strong attack to complement the defense that allowed five goals over six games. 

Espanyol has a -1 goal differential and a +0.4 expected goals differential. Sevilla is at +6 and +4.2 in both of those categories. 

Additionally, Sevilla earned a clean sheet in three of its last five meetings with Espanyol. 

Ligue 1: Clermont vs. Monaco (Over 2.5) (Sunday, 11 a.m. ET)

The most consistent betting trend in Ligue 1 has been Clermont overs. 

There have been 26 goals in seven Clermont games. 

Clermont was just thrashed by Rennes, 6-0, during the midweek matches. It faces a Monaco side on Sunday that is starting to find its form. 

Monaco earned a midweek victory over Saint Etienne and it has five goals in its last two games.

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