The Bundesliga’s return presented us with a few things to keep in mind when betting the rest of the season.
- There’s a clear separation between the top five teams and the rest of the league. Bayern Munich did not play well and still controlled a 2-0 win, while three of the other four teams won. RB Leipzig was the only one of the five that didn’t win.
- Will home-field advantage be eliminated? A single home team won in the nine games played Saturday, Sunday and Monday without fans. Is this a trend to watch? Maybe, but it’s also worth noting four of the six best teams were on the road.
- Werder Bremen is very bad. Betting against the 17th-place side should win you money over the next month-and-a-half.
This week, the games kick off Friday with a local rivalry game between Hertha Berlin and Union Berlin.
The marquee game features Borussia Monchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen, a pair of top-five teams. If you haven’t picked a favorite Bundesliga team yet, and don’t want to root for perennial favorite Bayern Munich, they are two of your best options.
Friday, May 22
Hertha Berlin vs. Union Berlin (2:30 p.m. ET, FS2)
Saturday, May 23
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen (9:30 a.m. ET, FS2)
Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund (9:30 a.m. ET, FS1)
Freiburg vs. Werder Bremen (9:30 a.m. ET)
Paderborn vs. Hoffenheim (9:30 a.m. ET)
Bayern Munich vs. Eintracht Frankfurt (12:30 p.m. ET, FS1)
Sunday, May 24
Schalke vs. Augsburg (7:30 a.m. ET, FS1)
Mainz vs. RB Leipzig (9:30 a.m. ET, FS1)
FC Koln vs. Fortuna Dusseldorf (Noon ET, FS1)
All of this weekend’s odds can be found on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s get to the picks!
Last Week:
Joe Tansey (7-1)
Larry Henry Jr. (4-1)
Joe Tansey
Freiburg vs. Werder Bremen
Picks: Freiburg (+118), Over 2.5 (-148)
#BetAgainstBremen
That’s the thought process here, and I’m honestly surprised Freiburg’s odds aren’t lower since it is playing at home.
Not only is Bremen just bad, but it concedes a ton of goals too.
While I’d love to hit on the Over 3.5 because it carries more juice at +175, I’m being more conservative with the Over 2.5 since Freiburg does not typically score a ton.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Pick: Alassane Plea to score (+160)
I don’t have a great feel for picking a winner in the best game of the weekend, so I’m going to stick to goal-scoring props.
Plea is Gladbach’s top scorer and he has one goal and two assists in his last four games.
With Marcus Thuram, the team’s second-best scorer, dealing with a small injury he picked up Saturday, there may be a higher reliance on Plea to score.
Bayern Munich vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
Picks: Bayern Munich Goals Over 3.5 (+133); Total Goals Over/Under 4.5 (+155)
Betting straight up on most Bayern Munich games is tough since it is an overwhelming favorite in a good chunk of games.
While there’s zero value on the money line, there are a few props worth considering.
Bayern is playing an Eintracht Frankfurt side that beat it 5-1 back in November, a task very few teams ever achieve.
With revenge on Bayern’s mind and Frankfurt’s poor defensive record of late, I’m taking a flier on a high over. Frankfurt has allowed 13 goals during its four-game losing streak, with both Dortmund and Leverkusen scoring four each against it.
Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund
Picks: Dortmund (-134), Erling Haaland to score (-134), Thorgan Hazard to score (+265)
To say Dortmund holds Wolfsburg’s number is being nice to Wolfsburg.
Dortmund has not only gone 5-0-1 in the last six against the Wolves, it has shut out Wolfsburg in all six of those contests.
With that in mind, I’m going in on individual scoring bets as well.
Putting money on Erling Haaland is typically a safe bet. He had a goal and assist last week and he’s scored in six of his last 10 games.
If you want more juice from the Dortmund side, look at Thorgan Hazard, who has two goals and two assists in his previous four appearances.
Mainz vs. RB Leipzig
Pick: Over 3.5 (+118)
Do you want goals? Well, Mainz and RB Leipzig should have plenty for you.
RB Leipzig put up EIGHT goals on Mainz when they met in November and 11 goals were scored in their two matches last season.
Leipzig is third in goals scored, while Mainz ranks second in goals conceded.
Mainz has to play with some desperation since it sits one spot above the relegation zone, while Leipzig needs to play better after a disappointing home performance Saturday.
Larry Henry Jr.
Freiburg vs. Werder Bremen
Pick: Freiburg (+118)
Freiburg picked up points in its last two matches and came close to sneaking out a victory over RB Leipzig Saturday
Freiburg has won three of its last five home meetings with Werder Bremen, who is coming off a 4-1 drubbing at the hands of Bayer Leverkusen.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Pick: Tie (+265)
Both teams are in the fight for the UEFA Champions League, and Monchengladach is not out of the title race just yet in third place.
Both teams are coming off dominant victories last weekend and bring plenty of attacking talent to the table. The last draw between these teams came in 2014 and certainly both would be happy with a point in this top-five showdown.
Paderborn vs. Hoffenheim
Pick: Hoffenheim (+108)
Hoffenheim was steamrolled by Hertha Berlin 3-0 last Saturday, but it is a likely favorite against bottom dwellers Paderborn away from home.
Paderborn has only won once in 2020 and four times all season, losing five of its last seven games. This is the perfect bounce-back match for Hoffenheim, despite having their two leading scorers out with injuries.
Schalke vs. Augsburg
Pick: Schalke (-104)
Schalke has a good chance to rebound from last weekend's loss to Borussia Dortmund.
Augsburg hasn't won in its last six league matches and conceded two goals or more in five of them.
Schalke sits 10 points above Augsburg in the table and United States men’s national team midfielder Weston McKennie could be in for a big game.