Sports betting takes can be wrong for a specific game, but they can come to fruition a few days or weeks later.
That is the case with Robert Williams and his double-double prop in the NBA Finals.
Williams sat at +900 to record a double-double in Game 1, but it look him a few games to make a true impact on the series.
The Boston big man had eight points and 10 rebounds in Game 3, a contest in which Golden State shifted to a smaller lineup at times without Kevon Looney.
Looney played 16 minutes and 49 seconds in Game 3. That was a lower minute total than two of Golden State's three bench players that saw significant time on the floor.
Golden State's smaller lineup approach not only has an impact on what Williams can do down low, but how the Warriors attack Game 4 from an offensive perspective.
The Warriors need to match Boston's scoring depth and they most likely can't do that with Looney on the floor.
NBA Finals Prop Picks
Robert Williams
Over 6.5 Points (-130)
Over 6.5 Rebounds (-115)
SGP 8+ Points/8+ Rebounds +350
Double-Double +600
Robert Williams benefited from Golden State's smaller lineup in Game 3, as he came two points shy of a double-double.
Williams was on the floor for 25 minutes and the Celtics took Daniel Theis completely out of the rotation. That is a good sign for Williams' playing time, even if he is not 100 percent. At this point of the season, no one is fully healthy.
Williams will be firmly planted below the glass on both sides of the floor. He has the potential to clean up on the glass if the three-point shooters on both ends struggle to find the basket.
The points aspect of the double-double may be harder to attain, but it is worth noting Williams is 9-for-10 from the field in the series.
The majority of Williams' points will come on dunks and second-chance opportunities. He may have more of the latter as the game goes on if Otto Porter Jr. is used as the center on the floor instead of Looney, like he was in Game 3.
Williams could still cash in on plus-money props if he does not record a double-double. An eight point, eight rebound same game parlay pays out at +350 on DraftKings. That is a way to scale down a bit from the 10 points and 10 boards.
Draymond Green Over 12.5 Assists & Rebounds (-135)
Draymond Green's combo assists and rebounds prop falls in line with the Golden State game plan from Game 3.
Green had four rebounds and three assists in Game 3. He could eclipse those totals in the first half if he worries more about functioning at a high level inside the Golden State offense instead of getting a rise out of the Boston players and crowd.
The Warriors need Green to be an efficient part of the offense in order to keep pace with Boston's scoring, and to cover any affects of Stephen Curry's ankle injury that he suffered in Game 3. Curry said he will play (of course he is it's the NBA Finals), but his shot may be affected at the start.
Al Horford Over 10.5 Points (-115)
I bought the dip on Klay Thompson points for Game 3, so I'm doing the same with Al Horford in Game 4.
Horford had 13 points in Games 2 and 3. That is a far cry from the 26-point performance from Game 1.
Boston needs a third scorer out of the starting lineup to complement Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Horford filled that role in Game 1 with Derrick White. Marcus Smart was that player in Game 3.
Horford could have a larger impact on the scoring column in Game 4 because of the adjustments Golden State made in Game 3 with Looney off the floor.
Horford will have a mismatch in some capacity throughout the game. He could shoot more from inside the three-point line and around the glass because of that. There is also the chance that Horford finds his stroke from deep again in order to give the Celtics an edge on their home floor.