The Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors combined to take 1,238 three-point shots in the first three rounds of the NBA playoffs.
There are all sorts of ways to approach player props for NBA Finals Game 1 based off those numbers.
The specific three-point props for Thursday's contest are a bit high for the star players, so I'm looking to the role players around them for plays.
Draymond Green should dish out a handful of assists to Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and others, while Robert Williams and Kevon Looney could clean up on the glass.
I'm also looking at Jordan Poole from the three-point prop perspective because his number looks a bit more manageable than the props for the star players.
NBA Finals Game 1 Props
Postseason Record: 41-46
Draymond Green Over 5.5 Assists (-140)
Draymond Green has an average of 6.7 assists per game in the NBA Finals.
Green has eight or more assists in seven of his last eight NBA Finals games. Those games were played in 2018 and 2019, but his role has not changed much inside the Golden State Warriors system.
Green went over this number on 10 occasions this postseason, with the last two coming in the two final contests with the Dallas Mavericks.
I expect Golden State's guards to do a majority of the scoring, and for Kevon Looney to be relied on down low. Green is would be the top distributor in all of those situations.
Golden State will have fresher legs on offense and that should lead to more made shots and a high assist potential for Green.
Jordan Poole Over 1.5 Threes (-145)
Jordan Poole knocked down multiple three-pointers in three of the five games against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals.
Poole shot 50 percent or better from the field in every game against Dallas and he attempted at least three shots from beyond the arc in the last series.
Poole's usage might be a bit tricky to figure out on a game-by-game basis, but he is Golden State's top bench scorer and he should take advantage of his spots when Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are resting.
Kevon Looney Over 9.5 Rebounds (+105)
Kevon Looney became an important part of Golden State's rotation at the end of the second round win over the Memphis Grizzlies.
Looney pulled down 22 rebounds in Game 6 against Memphis and went on to record three double-digit rebound totals against Dallas.
Looney has a tougher matchup on hand against Robert Williams and Al Horford, but he could take advantage of Boston's propensity to shoot the three.
The Warriors big man could haul in a ton of defensive rebounds if Boston is inaccurate from three-point range. He could also thrive on the offensive end if Curry and others attack the Boston big men to get them into foul trouble.
Robert Williams Over 6.5 Rebounds (-115)
The same thinking with Robert Williams applies to Looney.
Williams could bring a large rebounding haul because of the wide amount of three-point shots expected to be taken in Game 1.
Williams could be a riskier pick compared to others because he has been banged up and his minutes were limited in stretches over the previous three rounds.
The thought here is that Williams' physicality is needed to deal with Looney and he could be in for an extended period of time in Game 1 as the teams sort out their matchups.
I'm also sprinkling on Williams' double-double at +950 because if he gets an extended run on Thursday night, he could earn some put-back opportunities and trips to the foul line to pad his point total.